Iran war is far from over. Credible reports indicate continued U.S. and Israeli military positioning in Kuwait, the UAE, and adjoining Gulf states following the April armistice between Iran and the United States. Such deployments suggest that the current pause may be operational rather than conclusive.

This pause may, in part, be influenced by the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on 14–15 May, particularly given the broader geopolitical stakes involving trade, regional stability, and great-power competition. At the same time, battlefield dynamics, alliance coordination, and economic pressures are also likely contributing factors.

My consultations with former senior officers of the Pakistan military suggest that operational timing remains a critical factor in any potential U.S. offensive planning. This assessment is consistent with historical patterns: extreme summer temperatures in the Gulf—often exceeding 45°C—have previously affected the tempo of U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. While modern forces are capable of operating in such environments, large-scale ground offensives tend to be calibrated around logistical sustainability, making late summer or early autumn potentially more favourable windows for escalation.

The fact of the matter is that President Donald Trump, despite political and operational risks, may be compelled to consider such action under external pressure, as suggested by segments of U.S. security analysis. One indicator of shifting regional dynamics is the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. If this move triggers a broader shift—where major producers, including Saudi Arabia, abandon coordinated output limits—the oil market would move from cartel........

© The Friday Times