The combined invasion of Iran by the USA and its vassal state Israel on Saturday morning has plunged the world into an uncertain situation, dealing a devastating blow to the international rule-based order, the United Nations as the world body to prevent wars, international law, and the universally recognised conventions governing interstate relations.

The lone superpower used talks as a ruse. The USA leadership’s claim that Iran posed security threats to their country through its fast-developing nuclear and ballistic missile projects was also a blatant lie. The aggression against Iran is part of Jewish expansionism to occupy all lands lying between Israel and the Euphrates.

In one of my TV talk shows in October 2023, I had doubted that the conflict in Gaza was sparked by Hamas. I was confident that the conflict was provoked by Israel to be converted into a full-scale war, to bury the well-touted two-state solution to the Palestinian issue forever, and that this war would overshadow the security of the entire Middle Eastern region.

Earlier, I had also discussed the Israeli plan to become the superpower of the Middle East in my book The Fast Changing Geopolitical and Geostrategic Dynamics: Challenges for Pakistan, published in July 2018. It contains a copious chapter on Israel.

After destroying Gaza, killing over 70,000 Palestinians, including children, driving away the anti-Israel regime from Syria, weakening Hezbollah in Beirut, and neutralising wealthy Arab countries through the Abraham Treaties, Israel, with the USA at its beck and call, is advancing its plan for political and strategic control of the entire region.

It is a big lie that the Iranian nuclear programme and ballistic missiles posed a security threat to the USA and Israel. Iran was perceived to be a potential state that could resist the expansion of Israel.

For that matter, all Muslim states with some strategic power are viewed as potential enemies of Israel. These states are, obviously, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan. As part of this plan, the anti-Israel leadership of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Sudan were gradually and systematically eliminated, one by one.

The new political setup that emerged in Egypt as a result of the Arab Spring was nipped in the bud with the overthrow of the elected President Muhammad Morsi. He perished in prison, and the Ikhwan were driven from their homes and hearths. It is an organisation with a diffuse membership living all over the Arab region and could not be targeted otherwise, as many Arab rulers would have been happy to eliminate this menace to their authoritarian rule.

We witnessed that while pursuing well-entrenched political leadership or regime change in the above states, the USA-led Western world had no plan for the restoration of democracy, pluralism, or human rights, nor for the reconstruction of those countries. All these countries were left in a lurch, and the defenders of democracy and human rights left behind painful trails of devastation, civil war, fragmentation, and misery. All appeals to the people to rise against their tyrannical rulers were deceptive calls.

The Israeli leadership has successfully pitted Iran against all the Middle Eastern countries by dragging the USA into the war to implement its long-cherished goal of Greater Israel

The Israeli leadership has successfully pitted Iran against all the Middle Eastern countries by dragging the USA into the war to implement its long-cherished goal of Greater Israel

They have taken a leaf from the same playbook and are appealing to the people of Iran to rise against the tyrannical clergy for the sake of pluralism, human rights, and political freedom. What have they been offering as alternative leadership—Reza Pahlavi—who has been living in the USA since the overthrow of his father, Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979? No USA or Israeli leader has suggested him as the next leader of Iran. Mr Reza is presenting himself as the saviour of Iran, calling for the overthrow of the clergy regime.

Regime change or pluralism is not the real purpose of the invaders. Their objective is to destroy Iran strategically and plunge it into political chaos, leading to civil strife. They want to hollow Iran out from within.

Could we view this military campaign of the USA and Israel in isolation without tying the ends of the events that took place before the invasion of Iran? It is astonishing to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi undertake a visit to Tel Aviv, signing several Memoranda of Understanding in the field of defence; the increase in terrorist attacks on Pakistan provoking Islamabad into a calculated air campaign targeting TTP sanctuaries inside Afghanistan; the Taliban regime’s military attacks on security posts along the Durand Line; and, finally, the invasion of Iran.

These events, linked with each other, reflect a calculated plan to weaken the resolve of Pakistani leadership to be of any help to Iran. To some, this may seem far-fetched, but the sequence of events is compellingly intriguing.

The strategy of Iran seems to be prolonging the war and targeting the USA military and naval facilities in the neighbouring Arab countries, along with missile attacks on Tel Aviv. It cannot be definitively claimed how long Iran will be militarily able to prolong the war, or how much damage it will inflict on US military facilities. However, the USA and Israel have meticulously planned their invasion.

The first day of the Israeli attack was focused on the decapitation of political and military leadership, while the USA carried out a ruthless air campaign on all locations believed to be ideological citadels of the clergy leadership and suspected of housing Iran’s nuclear and missile projects. Given their military might, they have been successful in achieving some of their objectives.

The Israeli leadership has successfully pitted Iran against all the Middle Eastern countries by dragging the USA into the war to implement its long-cherished goal of Greater Israel. Iran has limited options to avoid antagonising the Gulf States. All these countries host USA strategic facilities, which strategists see as soft and easy targets for Iran.

The military strategists of Iran may hope that these countries eventually pressure the USA to save their region from devastation. Would they be in a position to do so? I doubt it very much.

The consequences of this war will be felt all over the world. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20 per cent of the oil supply to the world. The Gulf countries have closed their airspaces and grounded their national carriers, leaving hundreds of thousands stranded in many countries. Karachi airport is choked to capacity. There will be serious disruptions in supply chains all over the world, causing shortages of goods and food in many countries.

© The Friday Times