By Ashok Gulati and Ayushi Gupta, Respectively distinguished professor and research associate at ICRIER

India has a deep-rooted tradition in textiles and apparel (T&A). It employs a workforce of 45 million and contributes 2.3% to the GDP. But its share in global trade remains low (4.2%), merely $37.8 billion out of $897.8 billion. A closer look at the apparel segment alone (under HS codes 61 and 62) shows India’s share in global trade is even lower, at 3% ($15.7 billion out of $529.3 billion). More disturbingly, this share has remained stagnant for the past two decades.

Despite these modest numbers, India has set a target of $40 billion in apparel exports by 2030. But in the last few years, apparel exports have declined annually on average by 2%. If we had sustained the stronger average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 8.5% (2004-2017), we would have reached $31 billion by 2030. An AAGR of 5.3% (2004-2023) suggests exports could reach $21 billion by 2030. These numbers make it clear that without a significant shift in policy and strategy, the $40-billion goal will remain a daydream.

Our research points to a fundamental constraint: lack of scale. Put simply, we are too many, too small, and too dispersed. Over 80% of India’s apparel units are micro, small, and medium enterprises; meanwhile, China and Vietnam have........

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