True to its dynamics, Afghanistan keeps Afghan watchers and Afghanologists busy. If the recent events in the country and the adjoining Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan — collectively referred as Afghankhwa — are any guide, Afghanistan is at the cusp of major changes. Winston Churchill's 1939 famous description of Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" would fit today's Bakhtar or greater Afghanistan.

First, having assumed power militarily in August 2021, IEA, the Islamic Emirate, had consolidated power, which is becoming more diffuse now. The once longstanding divide between the ideological Qandahar in the north, firmly under the venerated Moulvi Haibatullah Akhundzada and the Taliban Movement; and the more pragmatic Loya Paktia in the south resolutely under the Haqqani influences, have more fault-lines now. The movers and shakers in Qandahar, among them, are showing frustrations and signs of discontent and divide on key issues like relations with Pakistan, the TTP, economy and social initiatives like the girls' education, for example.

As a historic constant, Afghanistan has traditionally endured a contest between Pashtunwali and Islam. Both mostly complement each other, but when divergent, girls' education and the women right to work etc for example, Pashtunwali wins. It is also important to know that politically, a monarchy sanctioned by tribal federalism could; and IEA sanctioned by religious authority can, presently, hold Afghanistan together. The alternative is chaos and instability. The competing sociological influences would align and re-align stakeholders in a constant struggle for power and dominance for 'ostensible' peace and stability.

Second, the non-recognition of........

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