War is here. What are our options? Let's do a deep dive.

1. We are faced with a three-border problem. The conflict with Afghanistan is escalating, US/Israel attack on Iran is widening, and India continues to glower from across the eastern border. This is the most serious poly-crisis we have faced in a very long time. Navigating it successfully would require supreme clarity about exercising tough options and absorbing external shocks.

2. The first direct shock of the war on Iran is likely the disruption of oil supply. Iran has responded ferociously to the unprovoked US/Israeli aggression and US targets in the Gulf have already been targeted by Iranian missiles. As the conflict escalates, as it surely will, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz and disrupting oil shipping lanes rises dramatically. If oil prices skyrocket, Pakistan's import bill will get a massive hit. The delicate macro-economic stability that we have achieved after painstaking effort is at a serious risk of damage. The shockwaves will travel through our economic system and can upset all calculations. Pakistan can ill-afford such disruption. But we may have no choice. The IMF mission is already in Pakistan for its review, and the next federal budget is three months away. All plans may be up for change.

3. If the Gulf region gets further destabilised, there is a danger that our remittances........

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