Sir Halford Mackinder argued in the early 20th century that geography matters because location shapes power. More than a century later, this fundamental principle of geopolitics remains as relevant as ever. As far back as the fifth century BC, during the Peloponnesian War, Sparta occupied the Dardanelles to deny Athens access to imported grain. The strategic logic of controlling geographical chokepoints has endured across centuries, even as technology has transformed warfare, communication and commerce.

The modern world came to believe that innovation and globalisation had diminished geography's constraints. That assumption is now being challenged. Geography is returning with a vengeance. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of disrupted maritime traffic through Bab-el-Mandeb expose the vulnerability of a globalised economy that depends on the uninterrupted flow of energy, goods and trade. These geographic chokepoints suggest that while globalisation has integrated economies across borders, the great powers have struggled to reconcile their pursuit of national interests with their responsibility for sustaining the global order on which their own prosperity depends.

The US and its allies constructed the post-war international order around the twin principles of primacy and restraint. Today, however, the limits of American power in the Persian Gulf have raised fundamental questions about the credibility of US primacy. The inability to guarantee the security of American military installations in the region, coupled with the difficulties of confronting Iran through conventional military means, has exposed a widening gap between Washington's global........

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