Critics of the comforting hope that America would go to war for Australia cite the competing national interests weighing on the White House at the time.

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Essentially, the argument goes, in our moment of peril (or Taiwan's, come to that), Washington would rank the 'realpolitik' of voter opinion and its own strategic calculus far above international friendship.

As persuasive as this is, a more 'materiel' barrier to American willingness already exists.

That of depleted munition stocks, ageing platforms, and yawning logistical incompetence. If the hubristic faces of either Donald Trump or Pete Hegseth have jumped into your mind's eye, you are following me just fine.

Launching bone-headed wars without consulting treaty partners, the UN or Congress, is a risk factor which, if it was ever considered, has just shifted from future-notional to present-observable. More on this shortly.

Besides, even under the most multilaterally minded US presidents, the actionability of obligations to consult under ANZUS and any implied oneness within AUKUS leave wide scope for cogitation.

That was always true, but the (re)arrival of the impulsive Donald Trump in 2025, has made such truths (to quote a president whose name adorns an unhappy USS aircraft carrier in the Middle East) self-evident.

Trump's success is his country's signature failure. He has forged an America in his own image - bloated with unjustified self-regard. It is an unashamedly self-interested America - if not precisely isolationist.

Trump would feel no obligation to a close ally, regardless of treaty expectations and regardless of Aussie blood and treasure committed in Vietnam........

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