Asia Defense | Security | South Asia

Why China Will Not Sell 5th-Generation J-35 Fighter Jets to Pakistan (Yet)

For China, the decision to sell the J-35 would carry ramifications far exceeding those of any previous Chinese arms sale.

A J-35A fighter jet on display at the 2026 Singapore Airshow.

Since 2024, there have been on and off rumors claiming that Pakistan is on the verge of acquiring approximately 40 Chinese-made fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets. To date, however, no contract has been signed, nor has a single fighter been delivered. Recently, these rumors have resurfaced once again. 

As things stand, neither Pakistan nor its longstanding rival, India, possesses any fifth-generation fighters. The acquisition of 40 J-35s by Pakistan would therefore be a game-changer, fundamentally altering the balance of power on the Indian subcontinent.

That said, Beijing is unlikely to approve such a sale in the near-term. It remains wary of upsetting the regional balance of power, particularly as it must prioritize meeting its domestic military needs – and Pakistan’s defense budget already stretched thin.

Unwilling to Upset the Balance of Power in South Asia

Over the past decade, China has provided Pakistan with extensive economic and military support – in part to establish it as a military counterweight to India. For Beijing, a Pakistan capable of holding its own forces India to divert resources away from the disputed China-India border, while simultaneously securing the section of the Belt and Road Initiative that traverses Pakistan-administered Kashmir. 

Beijing, however, remains wary of giving Pakistan too decisive a military edge over India, lest it upset the delicate balance of power on the Indian subcontinent – and, in doing so, risk unravelling the already fragile peace. 

Skirmishes already sporadically break out between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control – the de facto border partitioning the disputed region of Kashmir between Pakistani- and Indian-administered regions. Should Beijing decide to sell 40 J-35s to Pakistan, it would increase the likelihood of Islamabad seeking to alter the territorial status quo in Kashmir. 

Although Pakistan spends far less on its military than India, it is already capable of punching well above its weight. During the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, both sides were operating fourth-generation fighter jets – Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10Cs and India’s French-made Rafales and Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MKIs. 

Despite its numerical disadvantage and technological parity, Pakistan shot down five Indian fighters without sustaining a single loss of its own. According to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan could have inflicted even greater losses but deliberately refrained from pressing its advantage – likely out of fear that a cornered India would resort to escalation.

The induction of J-35s would give Pakistan’s military a further leg up in future fighting – especially since India currently possesses no fifth-generation fighters and is unlikely to acquire any in the near-term. It is not in China’s interests to be drawn into a conflict between two nuclear-armed states in South Asia when its core interests in East Asia demands its undivided attention.

Domestic Military Needs Take Priorities

Currently, China has three aircraft carriers, with a fourth under construction and up to five more planned as part of its ambition to build a blue-water navy. Despite this rapid naval buildup, however, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Air Force relies on a single type of fifth-generation fighter capable of taking-off from carriers – the J-35. 

Only two years have passed since the J-35 made its official debut. Production has yet to reach the numbers needed to fully equip China’s existing carriers. Even for a country widely dubbed the “world’s factory,” ramping up production will take time.

Time, however, is not on China’s side. 

For the past decade, China and the United States have been locked in a geopolitical rivalry known as the “new Cold War.” Although relations somewhat eased after U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to China this May for high-level talks, underlying tensions remain. 

For Beijing, this means that the PLAN must be able to stand toe-to-toe with the U.S. Navy’s 11 carriers and seven amphibious assault ships (each a de facto carrier in its own right) – and as soon as possible.

To sell 40 J-35s to Pakistan now, therefore, would be to set that timeline further back. Even a single squadron could leave China’s carriers understrength in the event of a naval stand-off with the U.S. Navy.

Beyond setting back China’s naval modernization goals, selling J-35s to Pakistan carries significant risks. 

The J-35 originally began its lifecycle as a privately funded project by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Shengyang Aircraft Corporation to attract foreign buyers. At first, the J-35’s development lacked official PLA backing. As the project matured, however, the PLA took interest, leading to the........

© The Diplomat