Tokyo Report | Diplomacy | East Asia

ASEAN Unity and Japan’s Role Amid US-China Tensions

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae meets with Vietnam’s President and Communist Party chief To Lam, in Hanoi, Vietnam, May. 2, 2026.

As US-China tensions persist, will ASEAN remain a stage for competition between the two major powers? Or will the region become an actor that actively shapes the regional order by strengthening its own unity and institutional capacity? According to The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, as caution toward both the U.S. and China persists, the region is becoming increasingly aware of the need to bolster its collective autonomy by enhancing ASEAN’s resilience and unity. Japan needs to recognize its role in strengthening ASEAN’s autonomy as part of its own economic strategy.

Neither China nor the US: ASEAN’s Unstable Balance

It is true that in the 2026 edition, trust in China across ASEAN rose to 39.8 percent, surpassing distrust for the first time since the survey began. However, it is too early to conclude that ASEAN is siding with China. While China is widely seen as the most influential economic power in the region, more than half of respondents (55.4 percent) expressed concern about China’s expanding influence. As for the expansion of China’s political and strategic influence, 66.1 percent expressed concern. It is difficult to economically distance the region from China, but there is a strong sense of wariness in the political and security spheres across the region. This duality is the essence of how ASEAN citizens currently view China.

The same is true for the U.S. Overall, net trust in the United States remains positive even under the unpredictable Trump administration, but the picture is patchy at the individual country level. Indonesia and Malaysia have deep distrust in the U.S. over its response to Palestine, while Singapore has come to feel concern and distrust over Washington’s opaque trade policy. While a majority of respondents stated they would choose China over the U.S. if they had to pick one, this should be seen less as a shift toward China than as a reflection of distrust in the U.S. In other words, ASEAN has concluded that it cannot safely trust either China or the U.S.

This is where the desire for autonomy is born. In terms of responding to U.S.-China tensions, a clear majority believes ASEAN should bolster its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two great powers. This is a sign that ASEAN respondents increasingly recognize that non-alignment or passive neutrality is no longer enough. Even in reciprocal tariff negotiations, ASEAN member states were unable to present a united front, and ultimately each country ended up negotiating separately under U.S. pressure. If Southeast Asia cannot demonstrate its autonomy and engage in collective negotiations, ASEAN centrality itself could be undermined, even turning into a centrifugal force that weakens........

© The Diplomat