Interviews | Security | South Asia

Strategic Affairs Expert Aleksei Zakharov on the Russia-Taliban Defense Deal

Besides “restoration of various Russian-made military equipment,” the Taliban regime may be keen on “Russian air defense systems” and “attack and surveillance drones” for use in conflicts with Pakistan.

Military hardware left behind in Afghanistan by the Soviets.

On May 27, Russia and Afghanistan signed a defense pact. This has come less than a year after Moscow formally recognized the Taliban regime as the government of Afghanistan. Details of what the agreement entails have not been disclosed. However, the pact marks an important shift in Moscow’s previously troubled relations with Afghanistan and could pave the way for deeper cooperation. The agreement has triggered speculation about its motivations and implications. Analysts have pointed to the timing; it comes amid the ongoing Pakistani military strikes on Afghanistan. Is Kabul seeking to boost its military capabilities to signal to Islamabad that it has strong friends? Others have argued that the agreement is about deploying Afghan fighters in the Russia-Ukraine war.

In an interview with The Diplomat’s South Asia editor, Sudha Ramachandran, Aleksei Zakharov, a fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, shared his insights into the growing Russia-Afghanistan relationship, reasons for the growing cooperation, the defense pact and its implications for Afghanistan and the region. While it is “natural” that Taliban leaders are projecting “the deal with Russia as a leverage or a deterrent against Pakistan,” the deal is not a mutual defense pact, he said. It is “unlikely to include any security assurances or mutual commitments to support each other in military conflicts.”

The Russian government and Afghanistan’s Taliban regime signed a military-technical cooperation agreement on May 27. What does this agreement provide for?

The details of the agreement have not been publicly disclosed, but judging by comments made by Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan, the deal includes the repair and restoration of various Russian-made military equipment. The Taliban’s interest is clear: possessing a large arsenal of legacy defense equipment left from the Soviet times, a Taliban-led Afghanistan would need to refurbish these platforms to bolster its defense capabilities. This includes the T-62M tanks, Mi-17 transport helicopters, Mi-25/35 attack helicopters, An-26 and An-32 transport aircraft, and artillery systems such as 122 mm D-30 howitzers, BM-21 Grad 122 mm multiple rocket launchers, and 82 mm 2B14 Podnos mortars. In the early 2000s, Russia also supplied Afghanistan with BMP-1 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles.

There have been reports, primarily in the Pakistani media, of the Taliban’s interest in acquiring Russian air defense systems. These systems were sorely missed by Kabul during the recent “open war” with Pakistan. The Taliban may also be keen to receive Russian assistance with attack and surveillance drones, which could again be instrumental in the event of escalating tensions with Pakistan. Even though Kabulov suggested that the agreement could eventually lead to defense contracts being signed by the two sides, it is unlikely that Russia will provide the Taliban with any advanced equipment.

How does Russia gain from the defense cooperation with the Taliban? What do you think is the quid pro quo?

One of the most important factors for Russia – and this could probably be part of the deal – is that the Taliban would not permit any third-country military infrastructure or the deployment of new military facilities on Afghan soil. Russian officials have referred to this on multiple occasions. Russia also seeks to gain more leverage over the security situation in Afghanistan and, it is expected that, through this agreement and overall bilateral engagement, Moscow expects the Taliban to share information about the situation on the ground. Therefore, Russia is looking at the security aspects of the deal and anticipates greater intelligence sharing and counter-terrorist cooperation with the Taliban. Regarding the latter, an important driver for Russia’s willingness to go ahead with the agreement is the prospect of a joint fight against international and regional terrorist groups. Russia continues to view the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) as the main threat emanating from Afghanistan. According to Alexander Bortnikov, Director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, the ISKP is actively recruiting citizens from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, as well as migrant workers living in Russia. He also highlighted that the ISKP, affiliated jihadist groups and armed anti-Taliban factions were making efforts to weaken the Taliban administration. Following this logic, arming the Taliban and helping them to make the legacy military hardware operational again aims to counter these groups and sustain the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

According to reports, Taliban fighters and other Afghan workers may join Russian fighters in the coming months on the frontlines in Ukraine. Is this in the pipeline?

It is unlikely that the Taliban could send troops to support Russia militarily, given their own precarious position within Afghanistan. They are unable to address the instability in the northern provinces and the security situation along the border with Pakistan remains fragile. These issues will prevent the Taliban from getting involved in other wars. Moreover, the Taliban fighters would not significantly alter the situation on the battlefields in Ukraine. They are more accustomed to the Afghan terrain, having excelled at guerrilla warfare in the highlands and mountains as well as in rural landscapes. Fighting on Ukrainian soil would be a completely different environment for them, where the saturation of drones creates “kill zones,” preventing infantry from making any significant advances.

As Russia is experiencing an acute labor shortage, Moscow and Kabul have been discussing the possibility of bringing Afghan workers into the Russian labor market. However,........

© The Diplomat