The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

Can Diplomacy Alone Secure India’s Critical Minerals Future?

India has recognized that critical minerals are a central pillar of its energy security, industrial strategy and geopolitical positioning.

Volatilities in the global oil market over the past two months are a timely reminder of India’s enduring energy vulnerability. With nearly 85 percent of its crude oil demand met through imports in 2025-26, the case for electrification has never been more urgent.

But the transition to clean energy technologies presents a different challenge of securing reliable access to critical raw materials. As India expands its critical minerals partnerships, the discourse must pivot to two key questions: (i) Is the race to secure critical raw materials underpinned by demand certainty for end-use technologies? (ii) How are these mineral partnerships translating to actual projects?

India’s ambitions are significant: 30 percent EV share and 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030, and 60 percent non-fossil capacity by 2035 after surpassing its earlier 50 percent target in 2025. These milestones are anchored in the need for reliable supply chains and access to minerals.

The country is 100 percent import-dependent on lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The scale of what is required is sobering: India’s lithium-ion battery demand for EVs was around 10 GWh in 2024. By 2040, UC Davis projections suggest this could surge to between 422 and 698 GWh. To sustain this growth, annual demand for battery minerals is expected to rise to 1,075–1,777 kilotons, a 46 to 66 times increase from 2024 levels.

Moreover, without domestic production of clean energy technologies, including battery cells, the mineral demand will not directly accrue to India, adding to the complexities of supply chain risk management. While the EV transition may reduce exposure to oil shocks at end use, it will not eliminate external dependence of supply chains, only shifting it from fuel to battery.

A Strategic Evolution in Expanding Global Partnerships

India’s recent international engagements on critical minerals reflect a growing recognition of this risk. Between 2019 and 2022, the focus was on laying diplomatic groundwork — forming Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL) and signing Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), and initiating early-stage partnerships. Since 2023, the approach has evolved toward operationalization: pursuing direct mining access in Argentina, Chile, and parts of Africa; expanding cooperation in technology transfer and processing with Germany, Japan, and France; and strengthening supply chain resilience through engagements with the United States, Australia, and Canada.

This marks a significant strategic shift, but partnerships do not equal supply security. A review of Ministry of Mines Annual Reports (2020–2026) shows that most engagements remain concentrated at the level of MoUs and institutional mechanisms, with only a limited number progressing to project-level evaluation, and even fewer to concrete exploration or investment agreements. This highlights the distance India must still cover to translate diplomatic outreach into physical material access. Further, without creating strong market certainty for end-use technologies leading to manufacturing investments, lack of off-taker demand and stranded asset risks remain a challenge.

Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

Even if India accelerates its upstream partnerships, the biggest constraint remains China’s dominance over the midstream. With 60-90 percent of global processing and refining capacity........

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