ASEAN Beat | Diplomacy | Southeast Asia

ASEAN Calls For ‘Self-restraint’, Return to Diplomacy as Iran War Intensifies

The flat tone of the bloc’s statements belies the severe disruptions that the war could have on Southeast Asia’s export-dependent economies.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has officially called for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Middle East, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran.

In a five-paragraph statement issued by ASEAN foreign ministers yesterday, the regional bloc expressed its “concern” about “the escalation of conflict in the Middle East following the attacks initiated by Israel and the United States” against Iran, and the subsequent retaliatory strikes by Iran.

It called on all parties “to exercise utmost self-restraint, avoid any acts that may further aggravate the situation, and resolve differences through diplomacy and dialogue in the interest of maintaining peace and stability in the region.”

“This escalation is particularly regrettable as it occurred amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, including mediation initiatives led by Oman aimed at advancing a negotiated solution,” the ministers said.

The statement affirmed the need of the warring parties “to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, in line with international law, including the U.N. Charter” and “to protect civilians and civilian infrastructures in armed conflicts consistent with international law.”

The ASEAN foreign ministers finished by pledging to “provide emergency assistance to ASEAN nationals” in the Middle East. There are several million Southeast Asian guest workers in the region, mostly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including around 2.2 million Filipinos and 80,000 Thais.

The war, which began with U.S. and Israeli air attacks on Friday, has since evolved into a ruthless campaign of bombing against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has responded by firing ballistic missiles and Shahed suicide drones at Israel and U.S. bases across the Gulf. The death toll in Iran has now reportedly surpassed 1,000, while six U.S. soldiers have been confirmed killed in Iranian attacks.

Significantly, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement noted explicitly that the war was initiated by the U.S. and Israel, refusing to align itself with the Trump administration’s arguments that the attacks on Iran were necessary to preempt an imminent Iranian attack. Beneath its measured – even anodyne – tone, this points to a considerable regional unease about the chaotic and abrupt character of the war and the potential economic impacts that a protracted conflict might have on Southeast Asia

These could far exceed the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The main reason for this is the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a sudden spike in the price of oil and gas from the Middle East, the source of around 60 percent of Asia’s crude oil imports. Given that fuel prices tend to flow through to most other parts of the economy, this poses a potentially significant threat to export-oriented Southeast Asian economies.

Yesterday saw a broad selloff in Asian stock markets as investors “grapple with mounting uncertainty over the duration and impact of the Iranian war,” Bloomberg reported. The hardest hit market in Southeast Asia was Thailand, the region’s second-largest importer of Middle Eastern crude oil (after Singapore) and its top importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) was forced to halt trading yesterday after the market plunged 8 percent in early trading. Trading resumed later in the day, but the SET Index closed 5.6 percent lower, the greatest drop since March 2020. The index now lost 9.4 percent since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, wiping out most of the gains that followed Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s decisive election victory on February 8.

Among the region’s other leading crude oil and LNG importers are Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, although the supply crunch is likely to be felt region-wide. Singapore and Malaysia serve as regional processing hubs for Middle Eastern crude oil, with the refined products shipped to smaller nations in the region. Among these is Myanmar, where the military junta yesterday announced the introduction of a fuel rationing system for private vehicles, blaming disruptions to the global energy supply chain caused by the war.

Aside from the economic impacts, Southeast Asian governments are likely to have been unsettled by the broader implications of the U.S. and Israeli action. Following the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, these “risk normalizing unilateral military force as a standard tool of statecraft,” Lynn Kuok of Brookings Institution noted this week.

She argued that the war is also likely to “harden regional perceptions” of the U.S. and Israel, with uncertain long-term impacts. “In a region with significant Muslim Sunni populations, there is limited solidarity with the Iranian Shia regime,” she wrote. “But this will not prevent public regard for Washington or Tel Aviv from further plummeting, complicating U.S. efforts to secure regional alignment with its objectives.”

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has officially called for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Middle East, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran.

In a five-paragraph statement issued by ASEAN foreign ministers yesterday, the regional bloc expressed its “concern” about “the escalation of conflict in the Middle East following the attacks initiated by Israel and the United States” against Iran, and the subsequent retaliatory strikes by Iran.

It called on all parties “to exercise utmost self-restraint, avoid any acts that may further aggravate the situation, and resolve differences through diplomacy and dialogue in the interest of maintaining peace and stability in the region.”

“This escalation is particularly regrettable as it occurred amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, including mediation initiatives led by Oman aimed at advancing a negotiated solution,” the ministers said.

The statement affirmed the need of the warring parties “to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, in line with international law, including the U.N. Charter” and “to protect civilians and civilian infrastructures in armed conflicts consistent with international law.”

The ASEAN foreign ministers finished by pledging to “provide emergency assistance to ASEAN nationals” in the Middle East. There are several million Southeast Asian guest workers in the region, mostly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including around 2.2 million Filipinos and 80,000 Thais.

The war, which began with U.S. and Israeli air attacks on Friday, has since evolved into a ruthless campaign of bombing against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has responded by firing ballistic missiles and Shahed suicide drones at Israel and U.S. bases across the Gulf. The death toll in Iran has now reportedly surpassed 1,000, while six U.S. soldiers have been confirmed killed in Iranian attacks.

Significantly, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement noted explicitly that the war was initiated by the U.S. and Israel, refusing to align itself with the Trump administration’s arguments that the attacks on Iran were necessary to preempt an imminent Iranian attack. Beneath its measured – even anodyne – tone, this points to a considerable regional unease about the chaotic and abrupt character of the war and the potential economic impacts that a protracted conflict might have on Southeast Asia

These could far exceed the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The main reason for this is the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a sudden spike in the price of oil and gas from the Middle East, the source of around 60 percent of Asia’s crude oil imports. Given that fuel prices tend to flow through to most other parts of the economy, this poses a potentially significant threat to export-oriented Southeast Asian economies.

Yesterday saw a broad selloff in Asian stock markets as investors “grapple with mounting uncertainty over the duration and impact of the Iranian war,” Bloomberg reported. The hardest hit market in Southeast Asia was Thailand, the region’s second-largest importer of Middle Eastern crude oil (after Singapore) and its top importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) was forced to halt trading yesterday after the market plunged 8 percent in early trading. Trading resumed later in the day, but the SET Index closed 5.6 percent lower, the greatest drop since March 2020. The index now lost 9.4 percent since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, wiping out most of the gains that followed Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s decisive election victory on February 8.

Among the region’s other leading crude oil and LNG importers are Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, although the supply crunch is likely to be felt region-wide. Singapore and Malaysia serve as regional processing hubs for Middle Eastern crude oil, with the refined products shipped to smaller nations in the region. Among these is Myanmar, where the military junta yesterday announced the introduction of a fuel rationing system for private vehicles, blaming disruptions to the global energy supply chain caused by the war.

Aside from the economic impacts, Southeast Asian governments are likely to have been unsettled by the broader implications of the U.S. and Israeli action. Following the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, these “risk normalizing unilateral military force as a standard tool of statecraft,” Lynn Kuok of Brookings Institution noted this week.

She argued that the war is also likely to “harden regional perceptions” of the U.S. and Israel, with uncertain long-term impacts. “In a region with significant Muslim Sunni populations, there is limited solidarity with the Iranian Shia regime,” she wrote. “But this will not prevent public regard for Washington or Tel Aviv from further plummeting, complicating U.S. efforts to secure regional alignment with its objectives.”

Sebastian Strangio is Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat. 

ASEAN reponse to Iran conflict

Southeast Asia economies

Southeast Asia LNG imports

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