Features | Politics | South Asia

After 8 Months in Power, How Much Has the BNP Changed Bangladesh?

It remains to be seen how willing the new government is to change the institutions that it now controls.

Tarique Rahman takes the oath of office as Bangladesh’s prime minister at the National Parliament Complex, Dhaka, Bangladesh, Feb. 17, 2026.

Tarique Rahman had been Bangladesh’s prime minister for just 11 days when war broke out in the Middle East. He took office on February 17; on February 28, the United States and Israel attacked Iran. By March, disrupted fuel supplies had forced Bangladesh to introduce rationing, putting further pressure on its economy.

Eight months into Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) rule, the results are mixed. Remittances have risen and inflation has eased. But living costs keep rising, businesses remain cautious, and law and order remains a concern. Mob violence continues.

The government inherited serious problems, but its decisions also need to be examined. Constitutional reforms endorsed in a referendum alongside February’s national election remain under negotiation. New rights laws have drawn criticism for weakening independent oversight.

How far is the BNP willing to change the institutions it now controls? And are its decisions making people’s lives better, safer, and freer than before?

Crime and Law and Order

Law and order remains a concern eight months into BNP rule. According to monthly data from Bangladesh Police, the force registered fewer murder, robbery, and kidnapping cases between March and September than during the same months in 2025. Burglary cases, however, increased, while mob killings continued.

Police recorded 2,122 murder cases during these eight months, down from 2,317 a year earlier. Robbery cases fell from 1,159 to 1,077, while kidnapping cases declined slightly, from 628 to 618. Burglary cases rose from 1,796 to 2,022, an increase of nearly 13 percent.

The total number of registered cases increased by 14 percent, from 110,296 to 125,763. Narcotics cases accounted for about 90 percent of that increase, rising from 31,111 to 45,091. The increase alone cannot establish whether drug offenses became more common or police became more active in registering them.

Mob violence remained a serious concern. A comparison of cumulative reports from Ain o Salish Kendra, a human rights organization in Dhaka, gives a toll of 131 people killed in mob beatings between March and August 2026.

On April 11, a mob killed a Sufi spiritual leader in Kushtia’s Daulatpur upazila following allegations that he had insulted religion. His shrine was vandalized and set on fire. Media reports said law enforcement personnel were present but failed to control the attack.

Similar incidents occurred in Dhaka in September. On September 25, more than 200 masked attackers looted and demolished the Radda MCH-FP Center, a maternal and child healthcare facility in Dhaka. A preliminary police investigation found that officers were present but failed to stop the looting. 

A day later, hundreds of attackers stormed a property and vandalized content creator Salman Muqtadir’s studio. Police linked the attack to a land dispute involving the property owner.

Police officers themselves have also faced violence. In June, a mob assaulted two officers in Savar and freed a suspect. In July, three police officers were attacked in Kutubdia while taking a suspect into custody. On September 5, Special Branch Sub-Inspector Altaf Hossain was beaten to death in Savar. More recently, on October 10, a police inspector was seriously injured in an attack by muggers in Khulna.

The government says the police are recovering. On August 26, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed claimed that suspects in almost all criminal cases filed during the government’s first six months had been arrested within a reasonable time. He said the administration had inherited a fragile security situation and was working to improve police morale.

Extortion also remained a concern. Court records cited in media reporting show that 723 extortion cases were filed across 49 police stations in Dhaka between January and August, a period that includes several weeks before the BNP took office. 

Dr. Md Tawohidul Haque, an associate professor and crime analyst at the Institute of Social Welfare and Research, University of Dhaka, described the government’s law and order record as mixed. “We cannot say that there has been any significant improvement compared with the previous one and a half years. At the same time, we cannot say that the situation has deteriorated dramatically,” he told The Diplomat. 

Haque attributed the lack of progress partly to uneven enforcement and the government’s failure to control its own personnel: “Unless a political party takes a firm position against wrongdoing within its own ranks, the situation will not improve.”

Haque also questioned whom drug enforcement was reaching. While drug users, small retailers, and couriers faced arrest, he said, influential figures continued to benefit from political protection. “The real patrons and powerful figures behind the drug trade remain beyond the reach of the law,” he argued 

Addressing that protection would require deeper changes in policing. “The Bangladesh Police has still not been depoliticized,” Haque said. “Its internal structure also remains largely unchanged.”

Inflation eased during the BNP’s first months in office, but the improvement was uneven. In March, consumer prices were 8.71 percent higher than a year earlier. Inflation climbed to 9.42 percent in May before falling to 8.34 percent in September, barely below the 8.36 percent recorded in September 2025. Prices were still rising, adding to costs households had already absorbed.

Earnings offered little protection. In August, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ wage index rose by 8.05 percent, trailing inflation. The index covers selected lower-paid occupations, including agricultural laborers, construction workers, and transport workers. For these workers, the figures suggest that wages still bought less than a year earlier, despite the slowdown in price increases.

There was more encouraging news from Bangladeshis working abroad. Remittances reached $18.94 billion between March and August, up 13.1 percent from the same months in 2025, according to Bangladesh Bank. These inflows helped replenish foreign exchange reserves and supported families receiving money from overseas. The improvement continued a rise in remittances that had begun before the BNP took office.

Businesses remained cautious. Bankers interviewed by The Business Standard (TBS), a Bangladeshi daily, described weak demand, expensive borrowing and energy shortages. Sohail R. K. Hussain, managing director of Bank Asia, told TBS that factories had unused capacity, giving businesses little reason to invest in expansion. The return of an elected government has yet to produce a strong recovery in borrowing.

The government inherited much of this difficulty. Bangladesh Bank had maintained tight monetary policy, while loan defaults continued to constrain lending. Its July–December policy statement acknowledged that higher interest rates alone could not resolve inflation caused by problems in markets and supply chains. It also announced a 600 billion taka financing package for industry, agriculture, and smaller businesses.

Fuel costs brought another setback in September. The government raised diesel prices from 115 to 135 taka a liter as the Middle East conflict drove up international energy costs. The Energy Ministry said the increase was needed to reduce losses at the state petroleum corporation. For businesses and households, it threatened further increases in production and transport costs, making the recent easing of inflation harder to sustain.

The government is also struggling to fund its spending plans. Banik Barta, a Bangladeshi daily, reported that the record 9.38 trillion taka budget relies on collecting nearly 7 trillion taka in revenue. Yet collections are falling as economic activity slows. 

Citing National Board of Revenue sources, the newspaper said revenue in July–August stood at 518.9 billion taka, down from 547.7 billion a year earlier and 291.6 billion below the target for those two months. Meanwhile, higher energy import costs, subsidies, increased public sector salaries, and major project commitments are adding to expenditure.

Dr. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, an industrial economist, policy analyst, and president of the Knowledge Hub Institute, said that high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment pointed to economic stagnation. He argued that the government had shown too little interest in the structural reforms needed for recovery. “The problem is that the government does not have the revenue support required to finance these activities,” he told The Diplomat, referring to its expanding spending commitments.

Moazzem questioned the timing of salary increases for government employees and large projects that he believed could be postponed. One such example is the large expansion of Biman Bangladesh Airlines’ fleet. Its orders for 25 Boeing aircraft from the United States and 10 Airbus jets from the European Union would total 35 new aircraft, compared with its current fleet of just 19. Moazzem warned that without reforms to the airline’s management and service quality, the massive purchases could leave Biman with a long-term debt burden that would be difficult to service.

New spending commitments are adding pressure at a time when businesses and households were already struggling, he added. High inflation, borrowing costs, and an uncertain business environment also discouraged private investment. 

While acknowledging the problems inherited by the BNP, he argued that this could not indefinitely excuse its performance. “After all, this government assumed office with the promise of reversing the economic deterioration,” Moazeem pointed out.

Eight months into his premiership, Rahman has visited Malaysia, China and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York but has yet to travel to India. The delay reflects the difficulty of repairing relations with New Delhi while Sheikh Hasina remains there. Her political activities from India, and Dhaka’s demand for her extradition, continue to complicate efforts to arrange a visit.

Speaking in Dhaka on October 3, Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Dinesh Trivedi said that Hasina’s return was subject to a legal process and offered no timeline. His remarks provided no assurance of an early resolution to one of the main disputes between the two countries.

Rahman declined to attend the BRICS Summit’s outreach session, with Dhaka objecting that the invitation addressed Rahman as BIMSTEC chair rather than Bangladesh’s prime minister. India replied that it had issued two separate invitations, including one for a bilateral visit. Behind the dispute over protocol were more practical concerns: Bangladesh wants progress on visas, trade restrictions and water sharing. The Ganges water treaty’s expiry in December gives those discussions particular urgency.

China offered a more welcoming reception. During Rahman’s June visit, Beijing backed cooperation on Mongla Port, the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Chittagong, and the Teesta river management project. The two governments also agreed to explore a dialogue involving their foreign and defense ministries, suggesting an interest in closer security coordination alongside investment.

The Teesta River project is of particular interest. The joint communiqué promised Chinese assistance and faster feasibility work; it did not announce a completed financing arrangement. In any event, managing the river within Bangladesh would not settle the separate dispute with India over sharing the Teesta’s water. Beijing’s support gave Dhaka another........

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