Flashpoints | Security | Oceania

Warning Signs: How China Normalizes Its Military Presence

As its presence becomes more normal, China’s aggressive and illegal behavior will attract less opposition.

A major strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific is happening quietly: China’s presence in seas and ports far from its coast is becoming routine. The frequency of its appearances has been rising for about a decade. Now it’s approaching a point where China’s military presence has become normal and expected, not aggressive.

This is another example of China’s familiar tactic of salami slicing, seen also, for example, in its progressive attempts at dominating the South China Sea: China takes a little, then a little more, and hopes eventually to have the whole salami.

Expect Chinese ships to keep turning up in waters near other Indo-Pacific countries with ever increasing frequency. Expect its ships to moor in their ports, too.

This outlook is based in part on ASPI war gaming in March that looked at how China’s defense and security agencies might extend influence between now and 2036.

Part of China’s goal is to dilute U.S. influence in the Indian and Pacific oceans. Through incremental changes, China is moving from isolated, episodic appearances to a sustained footprint in these two oceans.

As its presence becomes more normal, its aggressive and illegal behavior will attract less opposition. China’s persistent presence and great military power will be intended to have an increasingly coercive effect on how other Indo-Pacific powers, including Australia and Japan, respond to its aggression.

China’s far-seas strategy was prompted by expansion of its economic and energy interests far beyond its immediate waters. But the increasing presence of Chinese naval ships across the Indian and Pacific oceans indicates that China has moved to a two-ocean strategy, under which its fleets operate in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans. This strategy got “a renewed relevance and momentum” after the Belt and Road Initiative began in 2013. Execution of it is now more intensive.

So, expect China’s 2025 live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea to be replicated in the coming years elsewhere in the region and with rising frequency. Such exercises will send a message to India, Australia, and others: standing in China’s way is risky.

But China’s efforts to normalize its military presence will continue to evolve in several ways. There are at least four additional aspects that should be noted.

First, the Chinese navy’s rest and recreation visits to ports in the region could evolve into rotational presence in which ships arrive regularly for resupply, in some places conducting........

© The Diplomat