The Pulse | Security | South Asia

How New Delhi’s Policy on Ceasefires With Rebel Groups in the Northeast Contributed to Manipur’s Crisis

Abrogation of the ceasefires in Manipur may not be an option for the government as it could spark greater violence.

A notice put up by the government in Manipur in India’s Northeast calling on people to return weapons looted from police armories.

The continuing ethnic strife in Indian border state of Manipur is the outcome of many factors, including the Indian government’s policy on ceasefires with militant outfits.

The conflict that erupted in Manipur three years ago between the majority Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities has claimed more than 250 lives and displaced over 60,000 people. The strife has now widened to entangle Naga communities against the Kuki.

A major reason for the lingering conflict is the involvement of militant outfits from all three communities – Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga. An overwhelming majority of these groups have ceasefire agreements with the government, which the government kept extending without any result.

The extension of ceasefires with rebel groups has been part of the government’s multipronged policy to resolve militancy in the northeastern region.  The ceasefires are a prelude to agreements after which militants join the mainstream and surrender their weapons to the government.

That the policy has borne results in the Northeast is evidenced by the sharp decline of insurgency-related incidents over the past decade, which prompted Home Minister Amit Shah to recently remark that the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, considered a draconian law that gives extraordinary powers to security forces in counterinsurgency operations, would be revoked from large parts of the Northeast next year.

The tactic of prolonging the ceasefires has produced results in the states of Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Mizoram. The continuous extension ensures that rebel groups cannot return to the jungles to renew the campaign against the government.  Eventually, their bargaining power with the government also diminishes, with the result that agreements are accepted without the key issues being resolved.

This is what happened with the pro-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), which signed a ceasefire agreement with the government in 2011. More than a decade of negotiations followed without any result till the end of 2023, when an agreement was finally hammered out. The government rejected most of the key demands of the outfit.

However, the same policy has led to a deadlock in Nagaland and proved to be counterproductive in Manipur.

The National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) demands “symbols of sovereignty” for Nagaland, such as a separate flag and constitution, a condition that has so far not been accepted by the government. Still, the deadlock has not fueled unrest in Nagaland as the state has a homogenous population with an overwhelming majority of Nagas. There were sporadic clashes between the groups, as happened over a few days in Dimapur in 2008 between NSCN-IM and NSCN-Khaplang. But they never dragged on for too long to necessitate special measures by the government.

Manipur, by contrast, has a heterogeneous population, with the majority Meitei inhabiting Imphal Valley ringed by the Kuki-Zo and Naga tribes in the hill districts.  The state is unique in that it has the highest number of overground armed outfits among all states in the country. There are 25........

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