Beyond the Mekong | Politics | Southeast Asia

Myanmar, War, and Federalism: A Conversation With Joe Lo Bianco

Can state-based administrations forge a federalism that will keep the country together?

Joseph Lo Bianco is president of the Australia Myanmar Institute and a professor emeritus from the University of Melbourne in linguistics, with a sharp focus on the ever evolving civil war in Myanmar, the politics behind it and the prospect of a future federal government.

While the junta has deployed a new propaganda unit to tell the good news about a war that has cost about 93,000 lives, opposition ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have been writing constitutions and forming governments and administrations to run their respective states.

Then there’s the opposition in exile, National Unity Government (NUG) which – despite its differences with the EAOs and its allied People’s Defense Force – remains the only viable political outfit with a nationalist agenda for Myanmar.

“The NUG does have a well worked out policy about federalism, they have taken this seriously,” Lo Bianco told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt, adding that this is about delivering the decision making process closer to the people in a country where some 130 languages are spoken.

“Federalism doesn’t mean just one thing and Myanmar has to work this out,” he said. “It’s complex. The disadvantages are obvious. You can’t compare Rakhine with Mon or Chin states. Kachin is a huge and has a dominant language.”

Under Senior General Min Aung Hlaing the junta has full authority over just 21 percent of Myanmar, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. EAOs and the PDF hold 42 percent, while the balance is in dispute.

The Chinland Council and the Karen National Union have written constitutions and a rules-based order while the Arakan Army has seized control of most Rakhine State and built judicial and taxation systems while operating as a de facto government.

Other EAOs are heading down the same path while a declaration of independence by an eastern Karen splinter group led by Gen. Nerdah Mya and known as the Republic of Kawthoolei has been dismissed by the KNU and others as bereft of any legitimacy.

The buzz-phrase is bottom-up federalism and Lo Bianco adds: “After all the fighting it has to happen. It may not be imminent but it is inevitable.”

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Joseph Lo Bianco is president of the Australia Myanmar Institute and a professor emeritus from the University of Melbourne in linguistics, with a sharp focus on the ever evolving civil war in Myanmar, the politics behind it and the prospect of a future federal government.

While the junta has deployed a new propaganda unit to tell the good news about a war that has cost about 93,000 lives, opposition ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have been writing constitutions and forming governments and administrations to run their respective states.

Then there’s the opposition in exile, National Unity Government (NUG) which – despite its differences with the EAOs and its allied People’s Defense Force – remains the only viable political outfit with a nationalist agenda for Myanmar.

“The NUG does have a well worked out policy about federalism, they have taken this seriously,” Lo Bianco told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt, adding that this is about delivering the decision making process closer to the people in a country where some 130 languages are spoken.

“Federalism doesn’t mean just one thing and Myanmar has to work this out,” he said. “It’s complex. The disadvantages are obvious. You can’t compare Rakhine with Mon or Chin states. Kachin is a huge and has a dominant language.”

Under Senior General Min Aung Hlaing the junta has full authority over just 21 percent of Myanmar, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. EAOs and the PDF hold 42 percent, while the balance is in dispute.

The Chinland Council and the Karen National Union have written constitutions and a rules-based order while the Arakan Army has seized control of most Rakhine State and built judicial and taxation systems while operating as a de facto government.

Other EAOs are heading down the same path while a declaration of independence by an eastern Karen splinter group led by Gen. Nerdah Mya and known as the Republic of Kawthoolei has been dismissed by the KNU and others as bereft of any legitimacy.

The buzz-phrase is bottom-up federalism and Lo Bianco adds: “After all the fighting it has to happen. It may not be imminent but it is inevitable.”

Luke Hunt is a Southeast Asia correspondent for The Diplomat. He has spent three decades working in the region and produces the Beyond the Mekong podcast. He can be followed on Patreon and X – formerly Twitter.

1947 Panglong Agreement

Myanmar National Unity Government (NUG)

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