When Tonga opened diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union in 1976, the West reacted strongly. It reacted as if Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev himself had planted the hammer and sickle flag on Tonga’s shores. The establishment of relations between a Pacific island nation and the West’s strategic competitor sent shockwaves rippling across the vast Pacific Ocean. Australian officials quickly reassessed their regional priorities. New Zealand rushed to expand its aid programs. American diplomats suddenly “discovered” Pacific nations they had long ignored. 

The 2019 diplomatic shift by the Solomon Islands and Kiribati toward recognizing the People’s Republic of China in place of Taiwan’s Republic of China also sent geopolitical tremors across the Pacific region. New Zealand and Australia strategically increased their foreign aid packages; the United States expanded engagement beyond its traditional Micronesian focus; and Australia established security agreements with Tuvalu and Nauru. 

However, if today’s geopolitical rivalry mirrors the Cold War, that period also offers lessons. Those lessons highlight how cooperation and coordination can enhance a renewed approach to strategic denial.

Although government officials, academics, and others in the U.S. often understand strategic denial as the narrow

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