Tokyo Report | Diplomacy | East Asia

The New Nixon Shock? Why Japan Fears a Trump-Xi Deal

Some history helps explain why the symbolism of the China-U.S. summit matters so much to Tokyo. 

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae meets with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Sep. 22, 2026, one day before Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived for a state visit to the United States.

The latest China-U.S. summit, held from September 23 to 25, raised concerns in Japan, not so much because of its substance as because of how it appeared. Japanese media have paid particular attention to Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s references to their respective countries as former “allies” that fought against imperial Japan, as well as to Trump’s apparent intentions. Within the Japanese government, “confusion” has reportedly been expressed internally.

Before the summit, the Japanese government had been preparing for the worst-case scenario, a concern presumably heightened by the U.S. president’s suggestion, immediately after his previous summit with Xi, that arms shipments to Taiwan could be used as a possible “negotiation tool.” 

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae was able to secure a meeting with Trump before his meeting with Xi. Following her brief meeting with Trump, Takaichi indicated that their conversation had “the U.S.-China summit in mind” and that they had exchanged views in a timely manner on various issues concerning China. She also noted that “it is important that U.S.-China relations contribute to stability in international relations, including between Japan and the United States,” implying that Japan would prefer the U.S. not to pursue a unilateral deal with China that could come at Japan’s expense.

After the Trump-Xi summit, Japan has seemingly sought to manage expectations and reassure the public. Immediately after the meeting, Takaichi posted on X in Japanese that Trump had provided her with a “detailed explanation of the recent U.S.-China summit.” She also highlighted the significance of holding “two meetings between our leaders within the span of a single week,” describing this as a “demonstration of the strength of the Japan-U.S. alliance.”

Reports reinforcing the narrative that the China-U.S. détente does not overshadow Japan-U.S. relations have also emerged from unofficial government sources. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, several Japanese government officials told the newspaper that Trump reportedly praised Takaichi in his talks with Xi, describing her as a “strong leader,” and urged the leaders of Japan and China to hold talks with each other, among other remarks.

Despite Trump’s propensity for unconventional remarks, which understandably raise concerns about the future direction of U.S. policy toward Japan and the rest of the world, bureaucratic cooperation between the two countries has continued to deepen. Meanwhile, Piero Tozzi, a policy expert affiliated with the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a conservative U.S. think tank close to Trump, has emphasized that the current administration continues to view China as a strategic competitor.

However, perceptions matter when it comes to maintaining a stable Japan-U.S. relationship, which helps explain the Japanese government’s considerable........

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