ASEAN Beat | Politics | Southeast Asia

Bangsamoro’s First Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the Peace Process

After a long delay, the upcoming polls will determine whether the institutions created by the peace agreement can sustain a durable transition to peace and democratic governance.

A soldier stands by a road in Cotabato City, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Philippines, Jun. 15, 2025.

With Bangsamoro’s first parliamentary elections now scheduled for September 2026, the region appears to be approaching an important moment in its transition from armed conflict to democratic governance. The Philippine Congress recently approved on final reading a measure setting the election date, a bill now awaiting enactment pending the president’s signature.  After years of repeated delays and uncertainty surrounding the electoral timetable in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), this legislative momentum offers long-awaited clarity about the transition’s next phase.

However, the establishment of a new electoral timetable does not fully resolve constitutional questions surrounding the transition. A number of petitions filed with the Supreme Court have introduced legal challenges that may affect both the structure of the Bangsamoro transitional government and the legal framework governing the region’s parliamentary elections.

Legal Challenges to the Electoral Framework

In January of this year, the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) Parliament enacted a new redistricting law intended to comply with a Supreme Court ruling issued the previous year, which invalidated earlier districting arrangements and required elections to be held on or before March 30, 2026. Legal and operational constraints following the passage of the law complicated election preparations, and prompted the Commission on Elections to postpone the polls to a later date within the year.

While the national government has consistently expressed support for holding the Bangsamoro parliamentary elections this year, the new redistricting measure has drawn scrutiny from several quarters. The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), while not opposed to elections, has raised concerns that the enabling redistricting law reproduces legal vulnerabilities similar to those identified by the Supreme Court when it invalidated the previous districting arrangement for failing to meet criteria under the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL). The MILF argues that the electoral framework must be carefully structured to withstand judicial review and remain consistent with the BOL, which established the BARMM and provides the legal framework for its transitional governance and political institutions.

Debates surrounding the redistricting law have also intersected with broader questions about the composition and political balance of the BTA Parliament. Deliberations on the measure appeared to reveal shifting alignments among members of parliament,  prompting some figures within the MILF to argue that the transition authority no longer reflects the political configuration originally envisioned under the BOL.

These tensions have also surfaced in the legal arena. One petition filed before the Supreme Court seeks to invalidate several presidential appointments to the BTA, arguing that the appointments altered the political balance of the interim parliament and, therefore, raise questions about the integrity of the transition arrangement. Petitioners contend that these developments affect representation and procedural fairness as the region prepares for its first parliamentary elections. Further legal uncertainty has emerged through another petition filed before the court seeking to nullify several Bangsamoro laws governing the region’s parliamentary elections. Petitioners argue that elements of the districting framework and related electoral provisions conflict with both the BOL and the Philippine Constitution. Together, these cases introduce an additional layer of uncertainty for the region’s first parliamentary polls.

Such concerns are not merely hypothetical. The Supreme Court has previously intervened in Bangsamoro electoral arrangements, including invalidating districting laws last year shortly before scheduled elections. These precedents illustrate how judicial rulings have the potential to impact both the electoral timetable and the institutional foundations of the Bangsamoro transition.

Lingering Trust Deficits in the Bangsamoro Transition

These legal disputes also intersect with broader political tensions between the Philippine government and the MILF. Disagreements over representation and procedural fairness have contributed to lingering mistrust between the two sides. The tensions became more visible during deliberations over the new redistricting law, which exposed emerging factions within the MILF bloc in the BTA Parliament and raised questions among some members about whether the interim transition government still reflects the MILF-led arrangement envisioned in the peace agreement.

Trust between the parties had already been tested by leadership and appointment decisions within the transitional government. The replacement of MILF chair Murad Ebrahim in March 2025 as interim chief minister by Abdulraof Macacua, another MILF leader who commands the group’s armed wing, through presidential appointment marked a sensitive moment in the transition. Controversy emerged over several presidential appointments to the transition parliament, particularly the process that led to the selection of the current interim chief minister, which the MILF leadership described as having been “unilaterally decided” by the national government. For MILF and its allies, such decisions departed from the consultative approach that had typically characterized negotiations under the peace agreement.

These tensions have increasingly surfaced in Bangsamoro public discourse. In October 2025, the MILF publicly expressed its “loss of trust” in national government actors involved in implementing the peace agreement, particularly the head of the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation, and Unity (OPAPRU).  This sentiment has been echoed by MILF-affiliated groups and civil society actors in the region, who accuse the office of interfering in BTA appointments and leadership selection without adequate consultation – claims that underscore the fragile relationship between Manila and key stakeholders in the Bangsamoro transition.

As the Bangsamoro approaches its first parliamentary elections, these tensions are likely to shape both political alignments within the MILF and broader perceptions of the transition’s credibility.

Risks of Polarization and Localized Violence

Peace processes rarely unravel all at once. More often, they weaken gradually as strains in relationships persist and intensify without a clear means of resolution.

While political dynamics in Manila naturally fluctuate, developments affecting the leadership of institutions responsible for implementing the peace agreement have also become a point of concern. The recent resignation of the chair of the government peace........

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