China Power | Diplomacy | East Asia

Xi Jinping May Have His Own Reasons to Avert a China-Russia-US Summit

A formal trilateral could raise strategic questions that are awkward for the EU, Ukraine – and China itself.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have put Xi Jinping in an unusual position by expressing interest in a trilateral summit with the Chinese leader at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen mid-November. Xi’s cautious response so far – Moscow and Washington have confirmed discussion, while Beijing has yet to commit publicly – could help Europe and Ukraine avoid the worst: major powers making decisions about the region in their absence.

The idea for a meeting came from Russia and it’s not hard to see why. Moscow’s ideal outcome would reportedly be a “Yalta-style” agreement on Ukraine, echoing the 1945 conference at which the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union discussed the post-war order in Europe. But even much more modest results would count as a success. Simply taking part in such a summit would elevate Russia’s status alongside the U.S. and China, help break its diplomatic isolation, potentially drive a further wedge between the U.S. and Europe, and provide an important platform for its narrative of Western threats to Russia.  

A three-way meeting would play to Trump’s self-regard as a dealmaker and peacemaker – and quite possibly his appetite for economic gain. The United States recently eased sanctions on Russian diesel fuel exports, with an initial shipment of 40,000 tonnes reportedly on its way to the U.S. Moscow has also offered to increase fertilizer exports amid shortages caused by the Middle East crisis. But Trump may also have a larger strategic motivation. He has said that nuclear disarmament, not Ukraine, should be at the top of the agenda.

With the APEC summit in China being discussed as the venue, Xi would surely welcome the huge symbolic win of being seen as the world leader capable of hosting such an important gathering – while possibly helping to widen the divide between the U.S. and Europe. But Xi also has very good reasons to avoid such a meeting. China has benefited from dealing with Washington and Moscow separately, and it has in the past insisted that both Russia and Ukraine must be involved in any peace process. A China-Russia-U.S. summit to discuss Ukraine’s future without Kyiv would undermine both those positions.

A high-profile trilateral could overshadow the APEC summit, which Beijing wants to use to showcase its economic leadership and promote openness, innovation, and cooperation. A highly publicized gathering of three major powers also would sit uneasily with Beijing’s repeated calls for inclusive multilateralism, particularly at a forum intended to promote regional economic cooperation. 

A successful trilateral might make........

© The Diplomat