Features | Security | Oceania

Busting the Myths of the US Military’s Presence in Hawai‘i

As land leases come up for renewal, a new report reveals the facts about the U.S. Armed Forces’ impacts in the Pacific Islands.

A flight line mechanic assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 164 (Reinforced), 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, mans a .50-caliber machine gun aboard a Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter during a close air support exercise at Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawai’i, as part of Exercise Rim of the Pacific 2026, July 19, 2026.

In the middle of the Pacific Ocean, the U.S. military’s future in Hawai‘i has become a topic of growing debate given the upcoming expiration of leases for around 46,000 acres of military base land. The armed forces leased the lands from the state of Hawai‘i in the 1960s for 65 years at a token fee of $1. The leases start expiring in 2028.

Some unsurprisingly want to see these territories returned. The U.S. military played a key role in seizing indigenous lands after overthrowing the Hawaiian monarchy in the 19th century. The military still occupies around 25 percent of the most populated island, O‘ahu, and a larger proportion of the state of Hawai‘i – 5.6 percent – compared to any other state.

The state of Hawai’i and the Trump administration have engaged in discussions about the future of these lands. Hawai‘i’s Congress members and the official indigenous-led state agency, the Office of Hawaiian Affairs, have gotten involved in the debates. 

With the size of the military’s presence in Hawai‘i hanging in the balance, we helped co-author a major new report earlier this year, “The True Cost of the U.S. Military in Hawai‘i,” to provide a clear assessment of the armed forces’ local impact.

For years, many have made bold claims, in particular, about the economic benefits the U.S. military brings to Hawai‘i. The facts show the military’s contribution is significantly smaller than most people think, while the economic damage and other harms caused by the military’s presence remain hidden or overlooked.

Drawing on what are collectively more than 45 years of experience studying the U.S. military, our calculations show that the Pentagon and others have been exaggerating the military’s impact by billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the military’s presence is driving up rents and fueling the housing crisis, damaging the environment and public health, and limiting the growth of industries that would create more local jobs than the military.

Amid the debates about the expiring leases, here’s what we found to be the military’s true impacts.

The Pentagon, parts of the state government, media outlets, and boosters often describe the military as part of a “three-legged stool” – with tourism and real estate/construction – that serves as the backbone of the state’s economy. They point to billions of dollars in annual military spending, including $10 billion for FY2023, as evidence of the Pentagon’s contribution to the state’s economic wellbeing.

With the help of a 2025 research trip to Hawai‘i and an examination of government spending data, we identified the fundamental problem with these claims: These sources imply that all Pentagon spending related to Hawaiʻi directly benefits the local economy.

Significant chunks of Pentagon spending never touch the local economy. Instead, those funds are paid to people and corporations located in other states and countries.

In total, we found that the military’s actual economic impact is closer to $7.2 billion per year. This is $2.8 billion and nearly 30 percent less than the $10 billion spent by the Pentagon.

The military thus represents 6.4 percent of Hawaiʻi’s total gross domestic product (GDP) rather than the 9.2 percent recently claimed by the Pentagon and state government sources. Notably, our 6.4 percent calculation is similar to the most recent estimate of 6.0 percent of GDP made by Hawai’i’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism.

$7.2 billion is still a lot of money, but at least five other industries are larger statewide, including real estate, accommodation and food services, state and local government, retail, and health care and social assistance.

Unlike other industries where the vast majority of employees are residents in the state of Hawaiʻi, the opposite is true for the military. The vast majority of military personnel are not from Hawai‘i.

As a result, significant chunks of military spending going toward salaries and benefits actually leave the local economy when active-duty military personnel from outside Hawai‘i leave the state.

Thousands of military personnel counted as living in Hawaiʻi actually reside on Navy vessels for large parts of the year or are deployed abroad. While some of their salaries end up in the state’s economy, much does not. In total, our calculations show Hawai‘i benefits from $3.7 billion in spending on military personnel, which is around two-thirds less than the $6.2 billion boosters claim.

Large amounts of Pentagon spending also leave the local economy because many military contracts go to corporations that are not based in Hawai‘i. The top recipient of Pentagon contracts performed in Hawai’i in 2023, for example, was a joint venture involving a Spain-based multinational and a Texas-based company partnered with a........

© The Diplomat