Crossroads Asia | Politics | Central Asia

The New Constitution Reset the Presidential Clock in Kazakhstan. But Will Tokayev Run?

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court confirmed this week that the president is eligible to run for another single seven-year term under the new constitution.

So, he’s running. Or he can. 

On July 7, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court weighed in on whether senior officials who are subject to term limits – like the president – could be re-elected or re-appointed to those same positions under the new constitution, which went into effect on July 1. 

Their conclusion: yes.

Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev is not the first president in Central Asia to benefit from creative constitutional reinterpretations in the wake of a referendum. Uzbekistan’s first president, Islam Karimov, was elected four times despite the two-term limit in the Uzbek Constitution. Via referendums, Karimov’s administration moved elections to extend his term, and in other instances tinkered with the length of the presidential term, followed by an argument that such an adjustment re-set the clock on the number of terms.

Kazakhstan has done much the same.

Tokayev was first elected in a snap presidential poll in the summer of 2019, following Nursultan Nazarbayev’s surprise resignation that spring. He could have served out Nazarbayev’s term and then headed for an election to his own five-year term, but Tokayev likely felt the need to set his own mandate as soon as possible. At the time, Kazakhstan’s presidency was limited to two five-year terms. 

Barely three years in, however, the events of Qandy Qantar, or Bloody January, injected new urgency in the Tokayev government’s need to cement its position. That summer, Kazakhstan voted in a wide-ranging constitutional referendum, which adjusted about a third of the 1995 Constitution’s articles. Beyond changes meant to “de-Nazarbayev” the constitution – dropping mentions of “elbasy,” or leader of the nation, and his specific protections – the referendum ostensibly aimed to restrict the power of the president.

At the time, Tokayev boldly addressed questions of whether he would extend the presidential term via referendum, or abolish term limits. 

“Let me answer: I have never had such an idea and will never have it,” he said at the time. 

Later that year,........

© The Diplomat