U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has in recent days repeatedly denounced what he sees as China’s outsized influence on the Panama Canal – the crucial maritime passageway linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On December 25, 2024, Trump falsely claimed that Chinese soldiers were “operating” the Panama Canal, wishing them a “merry Christmas.”

Trump has also directly challenged the Panamanian government, arguing that the U.S. was paying too much in fees to use the canal. He added that if his demands on the management of the canal were not met, the United States would seek the asset to be “returned to us, in full, and without question.” He even mulled the idea of using military force to acquire the canal.

Much of what Trump says on the Panama Canal is false, as authorities in the country have been quick to note. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino stated that there was no Chinese control or participation in managing the canal. Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson disputed Trump’s claims while reiterating the canal’s neutrality.

But beyond the political rhetoric, what is the state of Chinese and U.S. influence in Panama? As experts in U.S. security cooperation, we carried out fieldwork in Panama for a recent book on U.S. overseas military deployments. This included interviews in 2018 with Panamanian government officials and journalists, as well as U.S. military and diplomatic personnel stationed in Panama.

What emerged then – and is still true today, we believe – is a picture of a nation aware of the importance of its key geopolitical asset and keen to balance U.S. and Chinese interests with its own desire to run the canal without undue influence from either Washington or Beijing.

The Panama Canal’s Backstory

The Panama Canal serves as a crossing point for ship........

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