China Power | Politics | East Asia

Taiwan’s Local Elections Are Not About China, President Lai, or the United States

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city – not topics like cross-strait relations. What can we learn from these elections? 

Legislator and New Taipei City mayoral candidate Su Chiao-hui and New Taipei City councilor Chang Chin-hao at the opening of their joint campaign headquarters in Xizhi District, New Taipei, Taiwan, Sep. 28, 2026.

This November, Taiwanese voters go to the polls to elect mayors, city councilors, and village chiefs. Many foreign policy observers will read the results as a verdict on Taiwanese attitudes toward China, President Lai Ching-te, Trump, or a potential war. That would be an analytical mistake. The outcomes cannot be explained by how voters feel about independence, unification, China, the United States, or any other national issue. As the saying goes, local elections are about local issues.

Decades of data show that Taiwanese voters prioritize China, sovereignty, and Taiwan’s future in national elections, but we have little longitudinal data on how they decide in local ones. What we do know is that voters often cast ballots for mayor or city council differently than they do for president. For example, Taichung and New Taipei have elected a Kuomintang (KMT) mayor in each of the last two local elections, yet a majority of their voters still supported Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2024. Electing a mayor from one party hardly means a city will back that party’s presidential candidate.

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city, such as housing, public transportation, and urban renewal. Some touch on national issues, but most mayoral and city council candidates avoid them, since talking about national issues or polarizing figures could cost them votes. 

One telling example is the absence of both the DPP and KMT party leaders from most mayoral and city council election campaign advertisements. Lai, who is also the DPP chair, and KMT chair Cheng Li-wun are both deeply polarizing figures, specifically for their positions on national issues including China and Taiwan’s relationship with the United States. Featuring Lai or Cheng in a local campaign invites voters to see local candidates as extensions of their party’s divisive leadership rather than a local candidate. In Taichung, for example, former president Tsai Ing-wen can be found far more frequently in DPP campaign ads than Lai.

Regardless of which party does well, both will likely frame the results as a sign that Taiwanese civil society broadly supports their policies, including on cross-strait politics. It would again be a mistake to buy that message. Local election results are not a referendum on party support or on attitudes toward the party chairs. During Tsai’s presidency, for instance, the DPP performed dismally in both sets of local elections, yet won clear victories in the national elections that followed. In Taiwan, national and local elections are neither tied to nor predictive of each other.

So what can we learn from these elections? Most importantly, they will set the chess pieces for 2028. A few key races will show which parties gain confidence and may shift factional politics.

One key example is New Taipei City, traditionally a KMT stronghold, and arguably the most important race this cycle. Outgoing mayor Hou Yu-ih is leaving office with high approval ratings despite his failed 2024 presidential campaign. His replacement should have an easy race, but the KMT candidate, Lee Shu-chuan, is struggling. Although he has a history of being a strong bureaucrat, Lee has run a lackluster campaign and lacks charisma. So far, his campaign has been bland. 

His DPP opponent, Su Chiao-hui, is performing strongly for a DPP candidate in New Taipei. As the daughter of DPP heavyweight and former New Taipei mayor Su Tseng-chang, she is both a family legacy and a demonstration of long commitment to the city. She has cleverly avoided national discourse, emphasizing instead her record of delivering for her community. 

Su’s campaign is leaving a far........

© The Diplomat