When Samoa turned red at the ballot box in August 2025, it wasn’t just a political swing – it was a geopolitical shockwave. Susuga Laʻaulialemalietoa Leuatea Polataivao Fosi Schmidt (Laʻaulialemalietoa), despite facing ten criminal charges and having been recently expelled from his own government, swept to victory with 40 percent of the vote. It was a win for Laʻaulialemalietoa, but it was a win for China too.

Laʻaulialemalietoa’s ties to Beijing are neither casual nor new. He serves as president of the Samoa-China Friendship Association and represents Samoa on the board of the Pacific China Friendship Association – an organization built to court Pacific elites and normalize China’s dual-use activities across the region. Within this network, Laʻaulialemalietoa is the most senior and politically engaged figure. These associations are part of the Chinese Communist Party’s “united front” system – Beijing’s global mechanism for guiding local leaders and elite networks toward China’s strategic interests.

China’s advance in Samoa was not a blitzkreig. It was a long cultivation – patient, persistent, and, as the election proved, profoundly effective. In a paper just published, we trace the evolution of China’s united front operations in Samoa from the 1970s to today. The story that emerges is one of systematic influence: elite capture, political division, and economic leverage. China’s political impact saturates Samoan society, yet China is a surprisingly modest contributor of aid and a negligible trade partner.

The previous government, led by Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa (2022–2025), sought to rebalance relations with Beijing, publicly voicing concern over

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