The controversy surrounding the federal government’s plan to scrap extra private health insurance rebates for the over-65s continues. Not everyone agrees on the impact of the higher premiums, whether that’s the number of people set to cancel their cover or the impact on the public health system.

Now NSW Health Minister Ryan Park says his department’s modelling shows scrapping the extra rebates would mean 23,000 more surgeries a year in NSW public hospitals, and that up to 80,000 people might cancel or downgrade their cover in that state alone.

It’s difficult to gauge the accuracy of these predictions without seeing the modelling.

But previous research, including from my team, suggests the impact of the proposed changes on older Australians might not be as drastic as the health insurance industry, and some state health ministers, say.

What’s being proposed? Who disagrees?

Australia spends $7.6 billion a year on private health insurance rebates – regardless of people’s age. The aim is to encourage people to take up health insurance, and so relieve pressure on the public health system.

Since 2005, Australians aged 65 and over have received a bigger government rebate on their private health insurance premiums than younger people. The level of rebate has changed slightly over the years.

But there’s growing evidence from peer-reviewed studies that health insurance rebates are not a cost-effective way to spend taxpayer money.

From April 2027, the federal government wants to scrap that age-based top-up, so everyone gets the same rebate regardless of age.

The government’s own modelling estimates about 44,000 older........

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