The world’s hottest years over the past decade have coincided with stagnant economic productivity, rising prices and geopolitical instability.

Is this just coincidence or has the current level of climate change been one of the drivers? Climate change is often framed as a problem for the future. But how much economic damage has today’s current level of ~1.35°C of warming already caused?

To answer that question, we analysed the effects of climate change to date on the New South Wales economy. The results were released today as part of a Net Zero Commission report.

We estimate climate change has already caused median losses of around 18% (probability range 4–33%) to the NSW economy, the biggest economic jurisdiction in the country. At a median 18% loss, that translates to about A$21,300 per person on average in yearly income.

We show that it’s not local bushfires or flooding that are driving the majority of damage, but changing global weather that in turn affects our cost of living.

Imagine a world without climate change

Studies typically project the global economic damage that climate change will do by 2050 or 2100.

Some influential estimates have suggested climate damage would be fairly small. But our recent research and........

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