Four years ago, on February 24 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that his forces had begun a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the reasons for which we have explored here. Within minutes, explosions were heard in major Ukrainian cities as Russian troops flooded across the border.

Russian forces made swift gains, capturing key areas near the capital of Kyiv. But the offensive soon stalled and, by December, Russia had been forced to withdraw its forces and consolidate in the east where the war has ground on ever since.

We asked Stefan Wolff, Tetyana Malyarenko, Scott lucas and Mark Webber, four regular contributors to the Conversation UK’s coverage of Ukraine, for their take on the most surprising development of the war so far and its likely trajectory from here.

A very traditional war – with added drones

Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham; Tetyana Malyarenko, Professor of International Security, and Jean Monnet, Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy

For us, the most surprising development remains Moscow’s decision to launch a large-scale ground invasion of Ukraine in the first place. Even though many Russian and western analysts expected a swift Ukrainian defeat, this always seemed unlikely from the perspective of Ukraine.

The mobilisation of Ukrainian society early on in the war testified to this and underlined that there was no realistic scenario under which the Kremlin could swiftly achieve its goals – to oust President Volodymyr Zelensky and “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine.

Much less surprising was Russia’s transition to a war economy and a traditional war of attrition, which became a foregone conclusion as soon as Moscow’s plan for a victory parade in Kyiv within weeks of the full-scale invasion turned out to........

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