Earthquakes still arrive without warning. That is the hard truth scientists have been forced to accept, despite a decade of advances in artificial intelligence, satellite monitoring and dense seismic networks.

We are getting better at detecting earthquakes once they start. We are now better at estimating the damage they may cause. But we still can’t predict the exact time, place and size of a future earthquake.

That may sound like failure. It is not. Over the past ten years, earthquake research has become more realistic. Instead of chasing precise prediction, scientists have focused on what can actually save lives: better risk forecasting, faster detection and earthquake early warning systems that can give people a few seconds to act before the strongest shaking arrives.

A few seconds may not sound like much. In an earthquake, it can be the difference between standing under falling glass and getting under a sturdy table.

What is an early warning system?

Early warning systems work by detecting the first fast-moving seismic waves after a fault starts to rupture. These waves are less damaging than the stronger shaking that follows. Because electronic signals travel faster than seismic waves through the ground, alerts can sometimes reach people first. In countries prone to........

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