Exit polls in Israel’s 2026 elections suggest Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition will be significantly smaller than the bloc of parties opposing him in the next Knesset (parliament). Arab parties also look likely to dramatically increase their representation.

Yet, with neither bloc likely to gain the 61 seats required for a majority, there is a long and complicated road ahead before we can say with certainty who will be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

Polls should always be treated with caution. In Israel this is especially true, for several reasons. First, too many unpredictable factors are at play in Israel’s electoral system – a nationwide proportional representation system with a high threshold (four seats) to enter the 120-seat Knesset.

Polling certain sectors, such as the ultra-Orthodox (13% of eligible voters) and Israel’s Arab citizens (18%), is very difficult due to operational and trust issues.

This year, pollsters were unable to map the views of an exceptionally high 618,000 new voters and an unprecedented 650,000 reservists and diplomats who vote in “double envelopes”, which are counted only after election day.

Finally, 810,000 of Israel’s 7.3 million eligible voters live abroad, but tens of thousands of them flew in especially to cast their votes this year.

With no camp likely able to form a majority, how will Israel’s next government be formed? What are the steps, and what political deals will be needed to build a coalition?

Ordinarily, Israel’s presidency is a largely........

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