In 2019, President Donald Trump recognized then-Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim leader over Nicolás Maduro, who has ruled the country since 2013.

The policy, which led Venezuela to officially sever ties with the United States, was consistent with the first Trump administration’s policy of maximum pressure and a desire for regime change when it came to the socialist government in Caracas.

Fast forward six years: The early days of Trump’s second administration has seen the U.S. president negotiate with Maduro over the release of detained Americans and an apparent willingness from Venezuela to receive hundreds of thousands of its nationals being deported from the U.S.

As a diplomat who served in Venezuela and knew Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez, I detect a subtle shift in the evolving Trump administration’s policy toward Venezuela. It’s true that the administration retains a strong dose of the anti-Maduro posture it held last time, particularly in light of Maduro’s widely denounced election fraud in 2024 and an undercurrent of antipathy in Washington toward left-wing authoritarianism in Latin America.

But U.S.-Venezuela relations under a second Trump term are subject to other factors and dynamics, including Trump’s desire to be known for deal-making and the fulfillment of his campaign promise to deport immigrants back to Latin America. At the same time, Trump needs to balance satisfying anti-Maduro voices in his coalition with not pushing Venezuela further toward China, a country all too willing to exert greater influence in parts of Latin America.

So far, the second Trump’s administration seems to be sticking to the line of not officially recognizing Maduro and preferring his departure from the scene. It has kept sanctions on the country intact and continues to recognize Maduro’s opponent, Edmundo González, as the legitimate president-elect.

But that hasn’t stopped the administration from pursuing negotiations. In late January, Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell visited Caracas to secure the release of six........

© The Conversation