New South Wales Premier Chris Minns delivered an attention-grabbing prediction this week. “By any poll, by any measure, [One Nation leader] Mike Newman will either be the premier or the opposition leader after the 13th of March,” Minns said on Sydney radio.

While the immediate focus is on One Nation’s performance at the Victorian election in late November, next year’s NSW contest will be a more important test for the insurgent party.

On present indications, the best One Nation could do in Victoria would be to prop up a Coalition minority government – although there seems a fair prospect Opposition Leader Jess Wilson could get to a majority. There’s no chance of One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering becoming opposition leader.

A good performance in Victoria obviously would be a fillip for One Nation, but the NSW election will be the big pointer for the future.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor NSW poll, published in September, has Labor on 29%, One Nation on 25% and the Coalition on 24%.

The Minns government, although in minority, should be in a strong position to win a second term. Minns, a pragmatist from Labor’s right, and a leader with a relatable style, has distanced himself from the Albanese government, which is still bogged in the problems from its controversial budget, with a now deeply unpopular prime minister.

The NSW opposition is weak. On current assessments, the Liberals are considered likely to lose metropolitan seats to Labor. The Nationals could face a near wipeout, with One Nation well........

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