Every ceasefire is haunted by the same question: will it live up to the promise of peace? The United States and Iran could apparently only focus on their disagreements during peace talks in Islamabad, with negotiations led by American Vice President JD Vance failing to result in a deal.

Experts speculated that Iran’s 10-point peace proposals and the American 15-point plan were too far apart to lead to consensus.

This is perhaps unsurprising. Between 1945 and 2009, a survey of peace treaties suggests that fewer than half of all countries that experienced armed conflict managed to avoid falling back into violence.

Dim prospects for Middle East peace

In the Middle East, in particular, the picture is even more sobering. The 1978 Camp David Accords gave us a lasting Egypt-Israel peace but Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat paid with his life and Egypt was cast out of the Arab League by its Arab neighbours.

The Oslo Accords of 1993, signed with such hope on the White House lawn, unravelled into the bloodshed of the Second Intifada. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal of 2015 survived barely three years before the U.S. walked away under President Donald Trump.

The June 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel held for months, then shattered.

And now, once again, the world was asked asked to hope. On April 8, a two-week ceasefire was announced between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, after 40 days of U.S-Israeli strikes. The conflict has sent global oil markets into crisis due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and left Lebanon under relentless Israeli bombardment.

Iran’s 10-point peace plan demanded the strait remain under its military co-ordination, full sanctions relief, compensation, American troop withdrawal and protection for its........

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