The bombing in Iran and the broader Middle East will eventually cease. United States President Donald Trump keeps hinting about a possible end to hostilities and the U.S. has sent a 15-point peace proposal to Pakistan.

But that doesn’t mean the end of consequences. International relations experts are already discussing several scenarios for what comes next. Each could reshape geopolitics for decades.

Every war ends because no society can wage war indefinitely. But the nature of any forthcoming peace will determine whether the seeds of the next conflict are sown. In this charged moment, Canada’s often-touted identity as a “middle power” deserves honest scrutiny.

Five plausible outcomes could now unfold, each carrying ramifications not only for the geopolitics of the Middle East but for the trajectory of future conflicts in the region:

1. America’s ‘mission accomplished’ moment

The U.S. will likely end the war by declaring victory, much as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan. This outcome would add to a growing legacy of incomplete military interventions stretching back to the Vietnam War in 1963.

Domestically, there will be two major political costs: diminished support for Trump among his MAGA movement and eroding public enthusiasm for unconditional backing of Israel.

For American voters, the gap between declared victory and lived reality will be difficult to ignore when at least 13 U.S. service members have already lost their lives and 200 have been injured so far.

2. An emboldened Israel

Israel will emerge from this conflict in a stronger regional position.

With Iranian proxies decimated at both leadership and operational levels, credible military threats to Israel will be diminished for at least a decade.

Yet the mass atrocities witnessed in Gaza and now in Iran will fuel new waves of resistance under new leadership. Israel........

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