With the Iranian regime weakened by relentless American and Israeli missiles, Washington is eyeing a familiar U.S. ally in the Middle East to help push the Islamic Republic over the edge: the Kurds.

Making up between 8% to 17% of the country’s total population, Iran’s Kurdish minority has long been persecuted under the Islamic Republic.

And since the war in Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026, reports have circulated suggesting that the CIA is actively working to arm Kurdish opposition forces with the aim of encouraging a popular uprising inside Iran.

Trump administration officials have held discussions with Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq and northwestern Iran, testing the possibility of using opposition forces to help topple whatever remains of the regime. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump personally called two of Iraqi Kurdistan’s top leaders – Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani – the day after the bombing campaign began.

All this comes amid reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying for a U.S.-Kurdish cooperation for months, and that Israel has long-established intelligence networks among Kurdish groups in Iran, Iraq and Syria.

The appeal of this approach, in this moment, is obvious: The Kurds have long-standing grievances against Iran’s clerical leaders, having suffered at their hands for 47 years. Many Kurds would welcome the Islamic Republic’s ouster. But as a close observer on Middle East dynamics, I believe that pursuing such an approach would be deeply reckless.

The logic and its appeal

The Kurds – roughly 30 million to 40 million people across Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran – are the world’s largest stateless ethnic group. Promised a state in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres, that prospect vanished with the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. Although united by shared heritage and related languages, Kurdish communities have developed distinct political cultures and leaderships, making them less a single movement than a collection of related groups.

Iran’s Kurdish minority, concentrated in the northwest, has long been at the forefront of opposition to the Islamic Republic.

Since the republic’s founding in 1979, Iran’s Kurds have faced persistent repression. The regime........

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