Colombia’s president-elect, Abelardo De La Espriella, widely known as “El Tigre”, will inherit a country deeply affected by insecurity.

The Paz Total (total peace) strategy of outgoing president, Gustavo Petro, leaves a difficult legacy. Dialogue with armed groups has produced limited results. Meanwhile Colombia has watched armed and criminal organisations consolidate territorial power, expand their violent capabilities and profit from coca cultivation, illegal mining and extortion.

De la Espriella capitalised on these problems in his election campaign, promising an “iron fist” policy. This means no more negotiations with armed groups, stronger military pressure, fumigation and eradication of coca crops, extradition of criminals to the United States and the construction of mega-prisons.

In a country where many communities live under the authority of armed groups rather than the state, these promises have clear political appeal. But is this iron fist programme well-suited to solve the problems that Colombia currently faces? One reason to be sceptical is the difficulty of tackling violent groups that are deeply intertwined with local communities.

The relatively centralised rebel governance, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc), once exercised across rural Colombia, has been largely replaced by a fragmented criminal governance run by professional and internationalised armed groups. These that have significantly expanded since the........

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