Iranian attacks on Gulf vessels trying to transit via Omani sovereign waters have once again pulled the region into a tit-for-tat spiral of escalation.

The US responded by cancelling the waiver permitting Iranian oil exports. Two nights of punitive airstrikes by the US air force against targets across southern Iran followed. Iran answered with ballistic missile and drone attacks on US installations in Bahrain and Kuwait.

The reluctance of both Iran and the Trump administration to return to full-scale war has not changed. But the boundaries of acceptable violence under this ceasefire are unacceptable for the Gulf states, who want to return to business as usual.

Washington is not helpful in this standoff, as its desperate attempts to force the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) off the Strait of Hormuz by coercion alone will not work. Punitive airpower will not make the IRGC surrender a prize it treats as a strategic spoil of war.

Under the memorandum of understanding now framing the crisis, Iran has 60 days to guarantee freedom of navigation. But it will only do so on its own terms. This risks creating a situation that gives it undue influence over the way Gulf states are able to do business with the world.

The way out is not more firepower, from either side. But this is a bargain the Gulf states themselves must broker, to convince Iran that restraint pays in the form of sanctions relief, unfrozen assets and a return........

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