Recent polling has delivered a spike for the anti-immigration party One Nation, triggering media speculation that Australian politics is on the cusp of a populist realignment.

The latest Newspoll had Labor on 33%, One Nation on 27% and the Coalition on just 18% of primary votes, which constituted both an historic high for One Nation and an all-time low for the Coalition.

Headlines tell us Pauline Hanson’s party is “soaring”, with some analysts asking if she could lead the country or emerge as opposition leader amid a populist uprising.

Yet, the evidence for either of those happening is thin. For a start, it relies on mid-term polling following a landslide victory for Labor in the 2025 election – in other words, is shows one in four Australians would currently vote for One Nation.

A 27% primary vote is certainly a notable boost for Hanson’s party. But framing it as a pathway to One Nation leadership misreads what is fundamentally a Coalition-induced problem. Here are several reasons why One Nation’s support is likely to hit a ceiling.

Historically, One Nation’s limited electoral success has been mostly in Queensland (22.7% first preference in the 1998 state election) and upper houses, where it currently holds four Senate seats out of 76.

Even then, the two One Nation senators contesting the 2025 election were well below quota on primary votes and relied heavily on Coalition preference flows to leapfrog rivals in the WA and NSW count. It was as much about a Coalition preference deal as a One Nation success story.

Australian prime ministers emerge from the lower house (the brief exception was John Gorton), where One Nation has........

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