One Nation is just two points behind Labor in a Victorian state DemosAU poll, with the election in November. A federal Resolve poll has One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23% each with Labor well ahead.

The Victorian state election is in late November. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted February 1–10 from a sample of 1,274, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down eight since an October DemosAU poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 21% (not previously asked for), the Greens 15% (steady) and all Others 12% (down ten).

The Coalition led Labor by 53–47 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Even if Labor fell below One Nation on primary votes, Greens preferences would boost them back ahead of One Nation.

On this poll’s results, the Coalition would be likely to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats against Labor, but One Nation would win some seats that would otherwise go to the Coalition. The result could be a Coalition government dependent on One Nation support.

Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -37 favourable, with 53% giving her a negative rating and 16% positive. Liberal leader Jess Wilson was at net 3 (27% positive, 24% negative). Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 40–31 (former Liberal leader Brad Battin had led by 40–32 in October).

Crime was rated the most important issue by 30%, followed by cost of living on 29% and housing affordability on 12%.

By the November election, Labor will have governed Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27. An “it’s time” factor may explain some of Labor’s bad........

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