Polls suggest Trump still shielding Labor as right‑wing vote drops
In my March 30 article about Newspoll and two other polls, I said Donald Trump’s unpopularity was shielding Labor from a backlash over the fuel crisis. The YouGov and Morgan polls imply that’s still the case, with the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45–45.5% (down one in YouGov and 3.5 in Morgan in the last fortnight).
This article also covers Newspoll aggregate data for January to March and the final lower house results of the March 21 South Australian state election.
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted March 31 to April 7 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since the March 17–24 YouGov poll), One Nation 25% (down two), the Coalition 20% (up one), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (steady) and others 7% (up one).
Respondent preferences gave Labor a 55–45 lead over both the Coalition and One Nation, a one-point gain for Labor against the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor against One Nation.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -16 (55% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied). Angus Taylor’s net approval was up seven points to -1 (39% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor by 44–36 as better PM, up from a six-point lead.
By 77–6, respondents thought energy costs would increase rather than decrease in the next 12 months. By 63–6, they thought unemployment would increase. Donald Trump was thought to have handled the Iran war badly by 71%, including “more than half” very badly.
A national Morgan poll, conducted March 23–29 from a sample of 1,562, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up three since the March 16–22 Morgan poll), One Nation 23.5% (steady), the Coalition 22.5% (down three), the Greens 13.5% (steady) and all Others 10.5% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by........
