The South Australian state election is Saturday, with polls closing at 6:30pm AEDT. The 47 lower house seats will be elected in single-member electorates using preferential voting.

In the past few days, we have had SA polls from Newspoll, DemosAU, YouGov and Fox & Hedgehog. These polls all suggest a Labor landslide, with Labor’s primary vote at 37–40% and the Greens at 11–12%. One Nation is in the low 20s, supplanting the Liberals (high teens) as the main right-wing party.

Breakdowns from the DemosAU, YouGov and Fox & Hedgehog polls suggest Labor is doing particularly well in Adelaide. The Liberals will likely beat One Nation on primary votes in many Adelaide seats, but if Labor wins these seats, it won’t count for the Liberals. In regional seats, One Nation is likely to beat the Liberals and win the seats.

On these polls, the Liberals could be wiped out in the lower house and be replaced by One Nation as the main right-wing party. But Labor would win a landslide.

Eleven of the 22 upper house seats will also be up for election by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election is one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%.

In previous SA elections, only ordinary votes cast on election day have been counted on election night. However, legislation passed in 2024 will allow pre-poll and postal votes to also be counted on the night.

By the end of the night, we will have a much higher share of the overall vote counted than at previous SA elections. However, the pre-poll votes will take much longer to count than those cast on election day.

This article also includes a New South Wales Resolve poll that has Labor’s primary vote slumping eight points since January to 29% as One Nation debuts with........

© The Conversation