Labor is still ahead, but the latest federal polls suggest a move against them. A DemosAU MRP poll has One Nation winning 52 of the 150 House seats and the Coalition just nine. A Victorian poll has the Coalition gaining a 52–48 lead over Labor.

At the South Australian election, One Nation won 22.2% of the statewide primary vote, beating the Liberals (19.1%). This shows we should take polls with One Nation doing well seriously. They won’t necessarily fade before an election or underperform their polls.

Morgan’s consumer confidence has fallen steeply in the last four weeks to a record low of 63.1, worse than during the COVID pandemic. I believe this slump explains why Labor is not polling well.

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted March 17–24 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the early March YouGov poll), One Nation 27% (up one), the Coalition 19% (steady), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (up one) and others 6% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a two-point gain for One Nation. This is the closest Labor lead over One Nation in this poll. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

A national Essential poll, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,008, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (up one since the late February Essential poll), the Coalition 24% (down two), One Nation 24% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), all Others 5% (down two) and undecided 7% (up three).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 47–46 including undecided (48–47 previously). If using 2025 election flows, Labor would lead by nearly 52–48. Essential’s polls have weak respondent flows to Labor and low votes for........

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