Albanese believes this T-word will win him a third term. It’s not ‘tax’

May 22, 2026 — 5:00am

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It’s May 2028. Australians are heading to the polls and Anthony Albanese is asking for a third term. The prime minister is not hugely popular with voters. He mangles his sentences. He broke promises two years ago on negative gearing, capital gains tax and taxing trusts. He’s been in office for six years and the days of “hot Albo” memes are a distant memory. The prime minister is seen as old and boring.

The oil crisis is over. US President Donald Trump’s second term will finish soon. The Reserve Bank finally has inflation under control and has cut rates a couple of times, but house prices haven’t started to spiral out of control – at least not yet – because investing in housing is now less attractive.

The world feels a little more certain than in May 2026, and Albanese faces two opposition leaders. The first is Pauline Hanson, who is riding a populist wave and eyeing off regional seats held by the Liberals and Nationals and outer suburban Labor seats. The polls suggest she could win a Senate seat in every state and perhaps up to 10 lower house seats.

The Coalition leader, Angus Taylor, is trying to fend off Hanson by railing against immigration. His promise to deny permanent residents access to government benefit programs is popular in the seats the Coalition is trying to save from One Nation, but it has sunk like a stone in Australia’s multicultural communities, where Taylor desperately needs to make inroads.

The budget fallout has Angus Taylor back in contention. But there’s something askew about this battle

Waleed AlyColumnist, author and academic

Columnist, author and academic

Voters admire his promise to index income tax rates, but they have questions about how he will pay for it, especially after he........

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