The rise of One Nation is all about ‘middle-finger voters’

February 26, 2026 — 5:00am

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We should be grateful to Pauline Hanson for again reminding us who she is. Whenever you order a serve from One Nation, you don’t get a little dollop of racism on the side. Hateful bigotry has always been her main fare, reheated over and over, with little effort to mask its bitterness.

The only surprising thing about Hanson declaring there are no good Muslims is that anyone is surprised. She could not have been more emphatic in her “swamped by Muslims” speech to federal parliament 10 years ago, when she claimed Islam was incompatible with Australian values and warned that unless we closed our borders to Muslim immigrants, we’d end up governed by Sharia law.

“Islam cannot have a significant presence in Australia if we are to live in an open, secular and cohesive society,” she told her fellow senators. “We have seen the destruction it is causing around the world. If we don’t make changes now there will be no hope in the future.”

It was a ludicrous speech, lifted from the talking points of Geert Wilders and other Euro-bigots, in which special bathing times at public pools for Muslim women and halal meat certification were cited not as practical examples of cultural accommodation, but evidence of a Muslim patch-over.

A decade later, Hanson is older, more politically savvy and no less obsessed by this phantom menace, with residents of Sydney’s Lakemba last week bemused to read they live in a no-go banlieue. Her political menu is essentially, unchanged. And yet, depending on which published opinion poll you read, somewhere between one in 10 and one in four Victorians are planning to vote for her party at this year’s state election.

How serious should we take these polls? Next month’s South Australian election, where Labor’s Peter Malinauskas is at no risk of losing office, may help calibrate the relationship between voter intention and actual votes for One Nation.

In the meantime, the speed and trajectory of One Nation’s reported rise, particularly in Victoria where voters have for 30 years shown little inclination towards Hanson’s brand of grievance, has alarmed the major parties in this state. It is also provoking serious and thoughtful reflection about what can be done to inoculate our politics against her particular strain of hatred.

One of the Labor’s emerging figures, Victorian federal MP and Assistant Minister for Citizenship, Customs and Multicultural Affairs Julian Hill, this week made an important contribution towards this. In an address to the McKell Institute on Wednesday, he recalled what Paul Keating described 30 years ago as the great tragedy of Hanson – her perpetuation of the myth of an Australian monoculture and the lie we can somehow retreat to it.

In his speech, Hill likens One Nation to JK Rowling’s soul-sucking Dementors, warning that its capacity to consume positive feelings and engender fear, anxiety and emotional despair should not be underestimated. He also identifies a potential Patronus (Rowling’s defence against Dementors) for the left of Australian politics – the embrace of what he describes as “inclusive patriotism”.

“Proudly embracing modern Australia means not shying away from love of our country, traditions and common symbols,” he says. “Inclusive patriotism helps to combat and blunt the rise of right-wing authoritarianism and exclusive nationalism.

Victoria has long been immune to Pauline Hanson’s charms. Not any more

Chip Le GrandState political editor

State political editor

“We should see this as part of Labor’s big social democratic project that promises Australians more security, prosperity and opportunity than hollow right-wing populism, angry nationalism and the politics of grievance.”

Part of this project involves championing what Hill describes as the compact of multiculturalism – a recognition that freedom to express cultural identity and enjoy equal opportunity and fair treatment is not absolute, but limited by a shared obligation towards Australia, its laws and democratic traditions.

Hill’s key point is that, while Hanson professes a love of country, she actually hates the diverse and largely cohesive nation we are. One of the Liberal Party’s deepest thinkers, shadow treasurer Tim Wilson, puts it another way: “The One Nation model is to build a better yesterday, not a better tomorrow.”

Wilson believes that support for One Nation, both nationally and in Victoria, is being driven by “middle finger voting,” where people frustrated by what’s on offer from the major parties are sending an unmistakeable message. He says whether the current level of support expressed for One Nation finds voice in the ballot box is not clear, but the political remedy should be.

Liberals beware: Voting One Nation often leads to Labor governments

George BrandisFormer high commissioner to the UK and federal attorney-general

Former high commissioner to the UK and federal attorney-general

“We have to be better,” he says. “We have to step up to the plate and offer a compelling vision and comprehensive policies on how we are going to get there. There is too much on the line to just look for easy answers.” He wants both major parties to be bolder and more confident in where they want to take the country.

A starting point for the Victorian Liberal Party is to rediscover the conviction it used to have when dealing with One Nation.

Former premier Jeff Kennett this month urged his party to direct preferences to One Nation at the state election and if necessary, govern with Pauline Hanson’s mob if that’s what it takes to end 12 years of Labor rule. This is very different to the attitude Kennett took in 1997 when he was leading Victoria and then prime minister John Howard was contemplating how best to respond to Hanson’s first coming.

“She should be put last on everyone’s ticket,” Kennett declared in 1997. “Would you seriously want your children’s lives affected by the philosophies being suggested by Pauline Hanson? [Her] views are not the Australia I know.”

State Liberal leader Jess Wilson, when asked on Wednesday about preferencing One Nation, was non-committal.

The Victorian election will show whether it is merely Kennett who has changed or the state he once led. We know Pauline Hanson never will.

Chip Le Grand is state political editor.

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