Will Wall Street beat the ASX this year? You might be surprised

March 11, 2026 — 5:02am

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For much of the past decade, Australian investors have watched the American S&P 500 surge ahead while our ASX 200 has lagged, weighed down by its heavy tilt toward banks and resources and its relative lack of exposure to the global technology cycle.

The obvious question is whether that gap will widen yet again, or whether conditions are finally aligning for the local market to put up a stronger fight.

On the surface, the US still holds the earnings advantage. Consensus points to around 13 per cent year-on-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 this year and closer to 15 per cent in 2027.

The ASX 200, by contrast, is expected to grow about 14 per cent year on year in 2026 but only about 8 per cent the following year. That leaves Wall Street with a growth premium – but a narrowing one.

And this narrowing matters. When the earnings gap compresses, the probability of Australian outperformance rises, particularly in areas where our market is structurally overweight. Currently, those areas are benefiting from several supportive trends.

Strength in gold, copper, lithium and uranium is giving Australian miners a tailwind that is both cyclical and structural. Years of underinvestment combined with rising........

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