Trump is steering the world into a food crisis

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The war in the Gulf has hit the epicentre of global fertiliser production. It has shut off the supply of urea, ammonia and sulphur for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar.

China, Russia and Turkey have now greatly compounded the shortage by imposing their own curbs on fertiliser exports in recent days. Close to 45 per cent of globally traded nitrogen is cut off, disrupted or at risk.

The crunch is happening just as the big farming belts of the northern hemisphere near the spring planting season and just as Australia approaches winter planting. It is the blackest of black swans.

Abdolreza Abbassian, the former head of commodities at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation, said the markets did not yet seem to grasp the full gravity of what was already in the pipeline.

“It will be bad enough even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened tomorrow but if the war goes on for another month or more, it is going to be a really horrifying crisis unlike anything any of us have ever seen before,” he said.

First came petrol pain. Now get ready for high-priced groceries

A second crisis is building up in parallel. The two risk colliding in 2027. Atmospheric scientists expect an El Niño pattern in the South Pacific this year and next, leading to hotter weather, longer droughts and lower crop yields.

A team at Columbia University has warned the world could hit 1.7 degrees above pre-modern levels in 2027, a “regime shift” that smashes through the heat thresholds of wheat and corn, and increases the risk of multiple breadbasket failures. Could it go non-linear? We will find out.

Jean-Marie Paugam, from the World Trade Organisation, said the fertiliser shock is a greater immediate threat than........

© The Age