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Trumpism won’t triumph: Even if a sharp US slowdown is likely, India should fare well in 2026

18 0
yesterday
Synopsis Despite initial fears of a global recession due to Trump's protectionist policies, the US and India experienced robust economic growth in 2025, fueled by an AI boom and lower-than-threatened tariffs. However, a potential AI sector slowdown and rising inflation in 2026 could lead to a significant setback for Trumpism and a challenging year for the US economy.

Trump has triumphed over critics, including me, in 2025. His state of the union message in January foretold a sharp rise in tariffs, and dismantling of the global rules-based economic system as well as the US’ role as global policeman that had driven the fastest economic growth in post-WW2 history. Then came his ‘Liberation Day’ in April, when he threatened tariffs that went up to 150% for China, and up to 30% on major partners, inviting retaliation and plunging the world into a deep recession. Markets crashed in India, and everywhere else.

In fact, India and the US have grown at high rates that seemed fantasies 12 months ago. The US has just recorded 4.3% growth in the last quarter, and India has registered 8.2%.

have turned out to be far lower than threatened. The world used to take pronouncements of US presidents very seriously. But Trump soon proved that he was more a real estate salesman than statesman, starting with ridiculously high rates and bargaining down to modest ones. TACO – Trump Always Chickens........

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