This story is adapted from the Slatest newsletter. You can sign up here to get it in your inbox every day.

If Republicans get thumped in next week’s midterms, Donald Trump’s war in Iran will be a big reason why. Many voters see the 8-month-old, $47 billion–and–counting conflict as a glaring violation of the president’s campaign pledge not to start new wars—one that has sent gas prices spiraling higher to boot. Yet regardless of just how much the elections end up looking like a rejection of Trump’s military adventurism, there are mounting signs that the president plans to escalate the fighting shortly after polls close on Tuesday. Let’s read the tea leaves.

They’re everywhere. As the Wall Street Journal reported this week, U.S. officials have told America’s allies in the Gulf to brace for “a short, intense military campaign” after the elections. Per the New York Times, the Pentagon has drawn up plans for new strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, missile batteries, drone arsenal, and nuclear facilities. The U.S. is shipping more weapons to the region and preemptively evacuating embassies and military bases that Iran could target for retaliation. More U.S. warships are en route, carrying thousands of Marines. Iran and the Gulf states caught in the crossfire, meanwhile, are frenziedly stocking up on missiles and interceptors as if anticipating a return to hostilities.

What has Trump said about all this? 

The president has publicly pledged not to strike Iran before the midterms, but he has also hinted that he has plans to do so once voting wraps. This........

© Slate