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The possibility of executing the innocent has gone a long way to change the national conversation about the death penalty. We know that over the past half-century, more than 200 people have been exonerated after having been sentenced to die, and scholars estimate that 4 percent of those sentenced to death are innocent.

And a 2021 Pew poll found that 78 percent of its respondents believe “there is some risk that an innocent person will be put to death.” But death penalty supporters have long contended that abolitionists have sold the public a false bill of goods.

One of them, Judge Morris Hoffman, argues that “To a large and unfortunate extent, the debate about wrongful convictions in a capital context has become a proxy for arguments in favor and against the death penalty. Lost in the crossfire is any reliable data about the actual wrongful conviction rate.“ He contends that no one has yet come up with “a single case of a demonstrably innocent person executed in America in the modern era.”

Hoffman claimed the “label innocent” is “just a way of saying there were errors in the trial, that guilt seemed to them to be a ‘close call,’ and that some of those close calls must surely, as a statistical matter, have involved some factually innocent people.”

Even the abolitionist Death Penalty Information Center concedes that “there is no way to tell how many of the … peo­ple exe­cut­ed since 1976 may … have been inno­cent.”

All of this may soon change. Virginia, which abolished the death penalty in 2021, recently initiated a review of eight cases of people executed there between 1986 and 1998 whose convictions were obtained based on testimony and evidence presented by a now-discredited state forensic scientist, Mary Jane Burton.

The results of that investigation could transform the death........

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