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Jonathan Kraut | Change of Plans: The Pending and Growing Cost of War

15 0
19.05.2026

When Donald Trump decided to go to war with Iran, of course Iran’s first move was to choke off the shipping route that supplies at least 20% of the world’s crude oil. 

Trump asked Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open despite killing Iran’s top leadership, neutralizing their navy and air force, and raining terror over the Iranian civilian population.  

Since Iran’s only political leverage was to close shipping lanes, I wonder why Trump thought his request to keep the Strait open would be accepted. 

Now this war is a battle of wills. Who will give in first — the U.S. and the energy-vulnerable international community, or largely isolated Iran?  

Don’t be surprised if America blinks first.  

The international economic crisis caused by the Strait’s closure is causing profound economic pain and pressure for us “to make a deal.” This pressure will only get more urgent with time. Meanwhile Iran’s allies, Russia and China, have other sources of crude oil. 

The entire world is just beginning to feel the full effect of supply chain interruption exemplified by steep inflation, the increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, natural gas and produce. Supply shortages and dramatic transportation cost increases are........

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